Key Takeaways
- Roblox stock is up 17% in the past month as a viral hit and a run of higher price targets outweighed a Jefferies downgrade.
- The stock now trades above analysts’ average price target, so taking some profits before the Oct. 29 report looks like the better move.
- Third-quarter bookings are guided to fall 14% to 18%, and analysts expect bookings to barely grow in 2026.
- Bookings against the $1.65 billion top of guidance and the fourth-quarter outlook will help assess Roblox’s monetization, while management commentary could clarify Steal an Egg’s contribution.
Roblox (RBLX) stock is up 17% in the past month (through Monday’s close), while the Nasdaq-100 fell 4%. It got there even though management guided third-quarter bookings down as much as 18%. The report is due after the close on Oct. 29.
A downgrade, then a viral hit
On Sept. 28, Jefferies cut Roblox to Underperform with a $38 target, and the stock fell 10% that day. The bookings gap behind that call is in the U.S. and Canada, where Jefferies sees a slower, pricier recovery. It modeled 5% bookings growth for 2027, against 12% for the Street at the time.
Then the news turned. Wells Fargo put Roblox on its fourth-quarter Tactical Ideas List on Oct. 1, and the stock shrugged off Playground, the AI game builder Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google and Unity Software (U) unveiled on Oct. 7.
Plus: Steal an Egg, launched July 25, topped Roblox’s most-visited list in the third quarter, with 6 billion visits and a peak of 14.2 million players at once, per Aream & Co.’s industry report.
Higher targets, same Neutral ratings
On Oct. 14, JPMorgan raised its target to $53 from $40, UBS to $53 from $45 and DA Davidson to $50 from $40. Wedbush went to $55 from $48 on Oct. 23. All four kept Neutral ratings.
Roth went further. On Monday it kept its Buy rating and $60 target, saying trends are improving on age verification and Steal an Egg.
Even so, Roblox stock now trades above three of those four new targets, and about 9% above the $50 average…
(A year ago, that average was nearly $150.)
TIKR Tracks 35 Analysts on Roblox. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Roblox, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Roblox’s Analyst Ratings
Engagement is up, and spending is the test
In the second quarter, daily active users rose 10% to 123 million, while bookings grew just 8% to $1.56 billion, so the average user already spent a little less. Management guided third-quarter bookings to $1.58 billion to $1.65 billion, down 14% to 18%.
CFO Naveen Chopra said on the July 30 call that today’s popular games don’t earn like 2025’s hits, and that “monetization weakness is likely to continue.” Steal an Egg broke out in September, after that guidance, so Oct. 29 is its first real test of whether it spends like last year’s hits.
Bing Gordon, Electronic Arts’ former chief creative officer and now a Kleiner Perkins partner and Take-Two board member, likes the model: “the whole monetization layer in Roblox is stunningly powerful,” he said on the MTS podcast on Oct. 6.
Analysts aren’t counting on much this year. Their sales estimates, which for Roblox track bookings, call for $6.9 billion in 2026, barely above 2025’s $6.79 billion…
And that $7.78 billion for 2027 was $10.2 billion at the end of March.
Priced for a good print
Against its own history, Roblox isn’t expensive. It trades at 5.3x forward sales as of Friday’s close, well below its five-year average of 7.8x…
But that multiple is up about 50% from its 3.5x low on July 31, the day after the second-quarter report. Paying up for falling bookings already looked early even before Monday’s gain.
Legal costs are the other risk. San Diego County sued on Oct. 5, joining ten states and Los Angeles County, and Roblox set aside $91 million for state settlements in the first half.
With the stock above most of this month’s raised targets, I’d take some profits and let Oct. 29 make the case. Bookings at the $1.65 billion top of guidance, plus a fourth-quarter outlook near the Street’s $2.0 billion (against $2.2 billion a year ago), would show Roblox’s players are spending again. If management credits Steal an Egg for a real share of that, I’d buy back in.
Of course, one viral hit can make a quarter. If Steal an Egg spends like 2025’s hits did, this run has further to go.
So what is Roblox stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
