Key Stats for Republic Services Stock
- Past-30-Day Performance: 5%
- 52-Week Range: $201 to $259
- Valuation Model Target Price: $290
- Implied Upside: 32%
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What Happened?
Republic Services stock rose about 5% in the last 30 days, recently trading near $220 per share, as investors absorbed fourth quarter earnings and reassessed the company’s 2026 outlook.
Although softer forward guidance initially pressured shares, the stock rebounded as strong profit growth, pricing power, and steady cash flow reinforced confidence in the business model.
The stock moved higher because earnings growth and margin strength outweighed below-consensus 2026 forecasts.
Fourth quarter adjusted EPS increased 11.4% to $1.76, beating estimates of $1.62, while revenue rose 2.2% to $4.14 billion.
For full year 2025, revenue climbed 3.5% to $16.59 billion, adjusted EBITDA reached $5.31 billion, and net cash from operations increased 9.1% to $4.3 billion.
CEO Jon Vander Ark said, “Through healthy pricing and disciplined cost management, we successfully navigated cyclical demand headwinds.”
While 2026 revenue guidance of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.20 to $7.28 came in below Wall Street estimates, core price increases of 5.8% in the fourth quarter and projected 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion supported confidence in margin durability despite softer environmental solutions demand.
Institutional positioning added further support. Approximately 57.73% of shares are held by hedge funds and institutional investors, and multiple firms increased exposure in Q3.
Longbow Finance SA raised its stake by 75.8% to 61,546 shares valued at about $14.12 million, ING Groep NV boosted holdings by 65.9% to 44,335 shares worth roughly $10.17 million, BI Asset Management Fondsmaeglerselskab A S increased its position by 82.8%, and Aberdeen Group plc added 8.7%.
Meanwhile, M&G PLC reported owning 1,198,619 shares valued at about $274.48 million, representing roughly 0.38% of Republic Services, while Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. reduced its stake by 35.5% and Baader Bank trimmed its position by 11.7%.
The overall ownership mix, combined with resilient earnings execution, helped support shares over the last 30 days.
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Is Republic Services Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 4.6%
- Operating Margins: 21.0%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 30.3x
Revenue growth reflects steady pricing power, contractual escalators, and modest volume expansion tied to municipal, commercial, and construction waste streams.
From 2025 revenue of $16.59 billion to the 2028 estimate of $18.97 billion, the projected trajectory supports mid-single-digit expansion anchored by disciplined pricing rather than a sharp rebound in volumes.
Analyst expectations reflect continued growth in environmental solutions, recycling investments, and renewable natural gas projects, alongside core price increases that protect margins.
With trailing gross margins near 43% and EBIT margins around 20%, incremental revenue continues to translate efficiently into EBITDA and free cash flow.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $290, implying about 32% total upside over roughly 2.9 years, indicating the stock appears undervalued at current prices.
For 2026 specifically, performance will hinge on sustained pricing retention, execution toward adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion, and stabilization in environmental solutions demand.
Continued acquisition activity, after investing $1.1 billion in deals in 2025, along with $1.6 billion returned to shareholders, supports per-share earnings growth even if top-line acceleration remains moderate.
At current levels, Republic Services appears undervalued, with 2026 performance expected to be driven by pricing discipline, operational efficiency, environmental solutions expansion, and steady cash flow generation rather than a rapid recovery in construction activity.
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