Key Stats for Opendoor Technologies Stock
- Price change for Opendoor Technologies stock: 19%
- $OPEN Share Price as of Feb. 20: $5
- 52-Week High: $11
- $OPEN Stock Price Target: $4
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What Happened?
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) stock surged 19% on Thursday (19th Feb) after the platform crushed fourth quarter revenue expectations and laid out a clear path to profitability.
The company reported Q4 revenue of $736 million, smashing Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $549 million—a beat of roughly 34%.
More importantly, CEO Kaz Nejatian delivered on every commitment he made three months ago. The company increased home acquisitions by 46% quarter over quarter, improved resale velocity dramatically, and is now guiding toward adjusted net income profitability by the end of 2026 on a 12-month go-forward basis.
The standout metric? Opendoor’s October 2025 acquisition cohort is on track to be the most profitable October cohort in company history.
At 50% sold through, this cohort delivered the highest contribution margins for any October since the company was founded.
Even more impressive, the cohort achieved this during what Nejatian called “the most aggressive market expansion in Opendoor’s history” and in a housing market nobody would characterize as strong.
- Opendoor Technologies stock also got a boost from improved resale velocity metrics.
- The percentage of homes on the market for more than 120 days dropped from 51% at the end of Q3 to just 33% by the end of Q4—an 18 percentage point improvement in a single quarter.
- Faster turnover means less capital tied up in inventory and lower risk exposure to price declines.
- For Q1 2026, management guided to an adjusted EBITDA loss in the low to mid-$30 million range, roughly in line with the FactSet consensus of $32.2 million.
- But the company expects to exit Q1 with the highest contribution margin since Q2 2024, signaling the turnaround is gaining momentum.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Opendoor Technologies Stock
The market’s enthusiastic reaction to Opendoor Technologies stock reflects growing confidence that the company’s “Opendoor 2.0” strategy is working.
Under Nejatian’s leadership, the firm has fundamentally restructured its business model from a capital-intensive “prop desk” that bet on home price appreciation to a more surgical “market maker” that focuses on velocity and unit economics.
Since September, Opendoor increased acquisition velocity by 300%, buying 537 homes in the most recent week compared to just 128 homes in all of Q3.
The company expanded its geographic footprint from covering about one-third of U.S. homes to nearly every homeowner in the Lower 48—a massive expansion accomplished in roughly 10 weeks using AI-powered underwriting.
What’s remarkable is that this rapid expansion didn’t blow up margins. Instead, margins improved.
- The October cohort showed the lowest margin degradation relative to home price appreciation of any cohort in company history.
- From 10% to 50% sold through, margins held essentially flat despite national home prices declining roughly 300 basis points over that period.
- Opendoor Technologies stock benefits from several structural improvements management made to the business.
- First, the company introduced flexible pricing where sellers can choose how much cash they want upfront, with fees adjusting accordingly. This reduces Opendoor’s capital risk while making offers more competitive.
- Second, the firm deployed AI-powered self-assessment tools that doubled the number of homes assessed in January compared to September, with about half requiring zero human visits.
- Third, the company slashed infrastructure costs from $12 million annually to under $5 million while actually improving product quality.
- These aren’t cosmetic cuts—they’re fundamental efficiency gains that drop straight to the bottom line as the company scales.
Management’s transparency is also noteworthy. Nejatian launched accountable.opendoor.com where investors can track weekly acquisition contracts in real time.
The company is grading itself publicly against the four-step plan it laid out last quarter, and so far, it’s green across the board.
Opendoor Technologies stock still trades well below its 52-week high, and the company has a long way to go before reaching sustained profitability.
But for the first time in years, the path forward looks credible.
If management can execute on its plan to reach 6,000 quarterly home acquisitions by year-end while maintaining healthy unit economics, the adjusted net income profitability target becomes achievable, not aspirational.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
