Key Stats for NIO Stock
- Current Price: $3.39
- Street Target (Mean): ~$6.26
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What Happened?
NIO (NIO) president Qin Lihong said on October 17 that the company outsold BMW (BMW), Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3) Audi in China in the third quarter. He said it was the first time NIO had passed all three in one quarter. Citing Wilson terminal sales data, he put NIO at 111,638 vehicles against 107,210 for BMW with MINI, 99,592 for Mercedes with Maybach and smart, and 94,597 for Audi. The figures are NIO’s selection of third-party data, not a regulatory filing.
Shares slipped 1.17% to $3.39 on October 19, the first trading session after the claim, leaving the stock down 33.53% in 2026. Without NIO’s two cheaper brands, there would be no lead.
ONVO and Firefly Delivered the Win Over BMW
According to NIO’s investor relations materials, the company delivered 109,178 vehicles in Q3. The NIO brand supplied 62,500, about 57%, and ONVO and Firefly added 46,678. Without those two brands, the NIO brand’s deliveries would sit about 32,000 below the Audi figure Qin cited, though the two counts use different data.
The comparison also depends on whose data is used. BMW reported 114,355 BMW and MINI deliveries in its China region in Q3. That figure is down 24.8% and above both NIO figures, though the counts are compiled differently. Mercedes-Benz Cars’ own China sales fell 31% to 86,800, so the lead over Mercedes holds on either basis.
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The NIO Brand Sells at RMB 406,000. ONVO Sells at RMB 240,000.
On the September 1 call, CEO William Li said through an interpreter that the NIO brand’s Q2 average selling price was RMB 406,000, above Mercedes, BMW, and Audi. It passed RMB 430,000 in July. ONVO averaged RMB 240,000 in the first half. A unit count treats those cars as equals, and the income statement does not. Chief Financial Officer Stanley Qu credited Q2’s year-over-year vehicle margin gain to “a more favorable product mix.”
The NIO brand is also where NIO wins luxury buyers. Li said the ES9 is drawing owners of traditional luxury gasoline SUVs and that about three-quarters of its buyers are new to NIO. He added that brand reputation already drives more than 30% of existing users’ purchase decisions. Yet the brand delivered between 20,008 and 21,318 cars a month from July to September.
ONVO is the soft spot. Li said its brand awareness is roughly where NIO’s was five to six years ago, and its deliveries slipped to 27,728 in Q3 from 29,124 in Q2. Firefly, NIO’s smallest car, is scheduled to add a 60-kWh CATL battery for new and existing owners on October 23.
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A GM-Level Multiple for a Brand Priced Above BMW
- NTM EV/EBITDA: ~7x (~63x at December 31, 2025)
- Peers, NTM EV/EBITDA: General Motors ~7x, BYD ~5x
- Consensus Gross Margin: ~18% in 2026 and 2027
- Analyst Ratings: 11 Buy, 5 Outperform, 6 Hold, 1 Underperform
At about 7 times forward EBITDA, NIO trades slightly below General Motors (GM) and above BYD (1211) at about 5 times, even though its namesake brand prices above the Germans. Consensus already assumes gross margin, which covers more than vehicle sales, holds near 18% through 2027. The multiple is waiting for proof that the mix will not slide toward ONVO and Firefly.
Q3 results are the next test. NIO reported the same quarter last year on November 25. If the NIO brand holds near 57% of deliveries and vehicle margin stays at or above Q2’s 18.5%, the German win came without costing margin. A shrinking NIO-brand share and a margin below 18% would mean NIO bought the volume with profit.
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So what is NIO stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
