Key Stats for NextEra Energy Stock
- Past-6-Month Performance: 21%
- 52-Week Range: $62 to $96
- Valuation Model Target Price: $111
- Implied Upside: 20%
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What Happened?
NextEra Energy stock rose about 21% over the past six months, recently trading near $92 per share as investors regained confidence in its earnings visibility and infrastructure growth outlook. Shares are now approaching their $96 52-week high, signaling sustained institutional demand rather than a short-term bounce.
The rally followed full year 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.71, up over 8% from 2024 and slightly above prior guidance, alongside reaffirmed plans to grow adjusted EPS at 8%+ annually through 2032 and again through 2035.
Energy Resources added 13 gigawatts to backlog in 2025, bringing total backlog to about 30 gigawatts, and placed 7 gigawatts into service.
That combination of earnings growth and visible project conversion helped re-anchor sentiment, as CEO John Ketchum said, “this year is about execution, which is our strong suit.”
Institutional flows reinforced the advance. Inspire Trust increased its stake by 12% to 160,000 shares worth about $12 million, NEOS Investment Management raised its holdings by 49% to 345,000 shares valued at about $26 million, and Premier Fund Managers boosted its position by 67%.
First National Bank of Omaha initiated a 178,000 share position worth about $13 million.
Some trimming occurred, with M&G PLC reducing 860,000 shares but still holding about 4.9 million shares worth roughly $370 million. Insiders sold 159,000 shares worth about $14 million last quarter, including 100,000 shares from CEO John W. Ketchum.
Institutional ownership remains near 79%, underscoring long-term conviction despite selective selling.
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Is NextEra Energy Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 10.6%
- Operating Margins: 37.4%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 20.6x
Revenue is projected to grow from about $27 billion in 2025 to roughly $37 billion by 2028, supported by rate base expansion at Florida Power & Light and continued renewable and storage deployment at Energy Resources.
The new four-year rate agreement allows $90 billion to $100 billion of investment through 2032, providing earnings visibility tied to regulated returns.
A 30 gigawatt backlog and 7 gigawatts placed into service in 2025 provide strong conversion visibility. Over 20 gigawatts of large-load interest at FPL, with roughly 9 gigawatts in advanced discussions, adds another layer of contracted growth.
The “15 by 35” strategy targeting 15 gigawatts of data center hub generation further expands the runway.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a $111 target by year-end 2028, implying about 20% total upside over roughly 3 years, or about 7% annualized.
In 2026, performance will hinge on backlog conversion, large-load announcements, transmission expansion, and disciplined capital deployment. Continued progress on data center partnerships and renewable execution could further strengthen earnings visibility.
At current levels, NextEra Energy appears undervalued, with growth supported by regulated investment, renewable scale, and long-duration contracted assets rather than multiple expansion.
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