Key Stats for Netflix Stock
- Current Price: $67.06
- Target Price (Mid): ~$135
- Street Target: ~$93
- Potential Total Return: ~101%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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What Happened?
“Overall, we’re not growing as fast as I want us to, and we’re working on making that move faster,” Netflix (NFLX) co-CEO Ted Sarandos said at Bloomberg’s Screentime conference on Sept. 30. He was speaking about engagement after viewing rose 2% in the first half of 2026. He added that Netflix is “also doing things that create a lot of headwind to that number,” and later said, “the business is great and growing fine.”
On Oct. 2, Netflix and Disney (DIS) announced a licensing deal that puts all five Ice Age films and two seasons of Percy Jackson and the Olympians on Netflix worldwide from Oct. 4. Series including Will Trent, Tracker, and This Is Us follow, along with Pixar’s Soul and Elio from early 2027. Shares closed at $67.06 on Oct. 2, down 28.48% in 2026 and 45.98% below their peak of the past year.
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Disney Gets a Promotion Window, Netflix Gets Hours
Disney is the licensor, and the windows sit ahead of its own releases. Percy Jackson arrives before its third-season premiere on Disney+ on Nov. 20, and the Ice Age films stream for three months ahead of Ice Age: Boiling Point in theaters on Feb. 5, 2027. The licensed titles also remain on Disney+ and Hulu, and Disney-branded titles largely stay exclusive to Disney’s own platforms.
Netflix’s side of the deal is hours. On the July 16 earnings call, co-CEO Greg Peters said Netflix expands its offering “whether through licensing or through new partnerships like TF1,” the French broadcaster Netflix began carrying in France in 2026. He also said animation series and kids and family TV take about 5% of content spend but should drive 8% of view hours.
The animated Ice Age films are the closest match to that category, though the figure covers series. Will Trent, Tracker, and This Is Us are adult-skewing network dramas, and the Pixar films do not arrive until early 2027.
Peters ties hours to pricing: U.S. members “pay the least per hour of viewing compared to comparable SVOD offerings,” meaning subscription streaming services. The catch is that Disney sets the windows and keeps the same titles on its own services, so Netflix is renting hours that a rival also uses.
Netflix Trades Closer to Disney’s Multiple Than Spotify’s
As of Oct. 2, Netflix traded at about 19 times NTM earnings, down from about 41 times on Sept. 30, 2025. Disney traded at about 14 times and Spotify Technology (SPOT) at about 31 times. Netflix’s Q2 revenue still grew 13.37% to $12.56 billion, and management guided in July for 13% to 14% growth in 2026.
As of Oct. 2, analysts were split: 28 Buy, 7 Outperform, 15 Hold, 1 No Opinion, and 1 Sell, with a mean target near $93. Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to Buy on Sept. 29 while cutting its target to $95 from $100, citing year-over-year growth in international viewing in each of the past four six-month periods. Wells Fargo, which rates the stock Underweight, said Sarandos’ Sept. 30 remarks point to problems with content and engagement.
At 19 times earnings, the multiple already assumes soft engagement. The stock needs steady growth rather than a reacceleration to support the model path below.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $67.06
- Target Price (Mid): ~$135
- Potential Total Return: ~101%
- Annualized IRR: ~18% / year
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The mid case is used because its revenue growth input sits below the 13% to 14% management guided for 2026. The model’s mid-case forecast inputs, which run through 2035:
- Revenue Growth: ~10% / year
- Net Income Margin: ~32%, against 24.3% in FY2025
- P/E Change: shrinking ~5% / year
Pricing and penetration drive revenue: CFO Spence Neumann put the addressable market at roughly 800 million households, under 45% penetrated. Because the multiple keeps shrinking, earnings growth carries the return.
- Upside: The mid-case target of around $135 by Dec. 31, 2030, matches the Street’s highest target of $135.
- Downside: If licensed hours fail to lift engagement, the multiple could slide further toward Disney’s 14 times.
Conclusion
Netflix reports Q3 results after the close on Oct. 20, per its investor relations materials. Q3 guidance of around 12.9 billion in revenue and ~0.82 in EPS sits in line with consensus, so the print alone settles little.
The number to watch is the Q4 revenue guide against the Street’s ~$13.5 billion. A guide at or above that, with the 13% to 14% full-year range intact, would suggest pricing and new titles still convert into revenue. A guide below it would suggest the headwinds Sarandos described are winning.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
