Key Stats for Tesla Stock
- Current Price: $370.59
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,860
- Street Target: ~$396
- Potential Total Return: ~403%
- Annualized IRR: ~46% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Tesla (TSLA) delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter of 2026 but built only 464,391, according to its October 2 production and deliveries report. Deliveries beat the company-compiled analyst consensus of around 462,000, and shares closed up 4.65% at $370.59 on October 2.
The 22,141-vehicle gap made it the second straight quarter in which deliveries exceeded production. That shifts the question from orders to output.
See historical and forward estimates for Tesla stock (It’s free!) >>>
Two Quarters of Selling More Than Tesla Built
Deliveries topped production by 28,368 in the second quarter and 22,141 in the third, a combined 50,509. That roughly offsets the 50,363-vehicle surplus from the first quarter. Tesla also built 18,538 more vehicles than it delivered across 2025, so reported figures still leave some cushion.
Management has already named the limit. “We are, therefore, focused on increasing production at all our factories to meet this growing demand. Production growth will be limited by our supply chain. This includes not just batteries, but also electronic components,” Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja said on the July 22 earnings call.
Rivian (RIVN) got a different reception the same day. It delivered 19,248 vehicles, a company record that topped estimates, yet its shares fell to an intraday four-month low.
Tesla’s own quarter had soft spots. Deliveries fell 2.1% from the record 497,099 a year earlier, a quarter lifted by U.S. buyers rushing to claim the expiring $7,500 federal tax credit. Energy storage deployments of 13.7 GWh rose from 12.5 GWh a year ago but missed the 15.9 GWh consensus.
The Fourth-Quarter Bar Sits Just Above Q3 Output
Before the third-quarter print, the full-year delivery consensus of around 1.77 million implied around 467,000 fourth-quarter deliveries. That figure subtracts the first two quarters’ actual deliveries and the roughly 462,000 third-quarter estimate. The bar sits slightly above the 464,391 vehicles Tesla built in the third quarter, so meeting it without another drawdown requires output to edge higher.
Costs are the second constraint. Taneja said operating expenses, “largely driven by R&D,” would “continue to grow in 2026 and beyond.” TIKR consensus calls for third-quarter EBIT of around $860 million on average, with the median closer to $690 million as a few high estimates lift the average.
See how Tesla performs against its peers in TIKR (It’s free!) >>>
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $370.59
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,860
- Potential Total Return: ~403%
- Annualized IRR: ~46% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Tesla stock (It’s free!) >>>
The mid case assumes revenue compounds at around 22% a year and net income margins near 23% over the model’s 2025 to 2035 forecast window, with the P/E multiple contracting about 5.5% a year. Consensus runs only through 2030, with eight analysts that far out, and implies around 18% annual revenue growth and a normalized net margin near 17% in 2030. Tesla’s normalized net margin was 6.2% in 2025.
If autonomy and energy margins scale on schedule, the mid-case path holds; if margins track consensus, the target overstates value. The Street’s mean target of around $396, set on a shorter horizon than the model’s, reflects that caution. Ratings stand at 15 Buy, 4 Outperform, 20 Hold, 3 No Opinion, 2 Underperform, and 2 Sell, and the card’s low and high cases run to a later date, so they are not comparable here.
Conclusion
Tesla typically reports quarterly production and deliveries in the first days of the following quarter, so fourth-quarter output should arrive in early January. Production above the third quarter’s 464,391 would suggest the supply chain is loosening. Another quarter of deliveries outrunning production would leave the cushion thinner, and any update to production plans on the October 21 call is the first read.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
So what is Tesla stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Tesla could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
