Key Takeaways
- Super Micro stock has gained 41% since early January to close at $44 on October 2, 2026, but it still sits 17% below its level a year ago.
- Q4 FY26 non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 beat the $0.96 estimate on a 17.6% gross margin, and new orders topped $60B.
- An August 20 board-led probe found no evidence that current senior management knew of the alleged China diversion scheme charged in March.
- TIKR’s model targets $90 by June 2031, implying 105% total return.
SMCI Stock Is Up 41% in 2026 but Down 17% Over One Year
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock has gained 41% since early January, closing at $44 on October 2, 2026, after a fiscal fourth quarter in which non-GAAP EPS hit $1.70 against a $0.96 estimate. Super Micro stock still sits 17% below its level a year ago.
Four events explain the shape of the year-to-date chart.
- In late March, the shares gapped from the low $30s to near $21 after the U.S. Department of Justice charged three people associated with Super Micro, including a co-founder, with allegedly conspiring to divert billions of dollars’ worth of U.S. AI technology to China.
- A rally to near $50 in early June faded into the high $20s by July, a stretch in which Super Micro closed a $5.6 billion raise of common stock and mandatory convertible preferred shares.
- On August 11, Super Micro reported its fiscal fourth quarter and confirmed more than $60 billion in new orders, and the stock jumped 19% the next day to $38.
- An independent board-led investigation closed on August 20 with no evidence that current senior management knew of the alleged export-control diversion.
CEO Charles Liang framed the fourth fiscal quarter around profitability when he opened the prepared remarks on the Q4 earnings call: “For the fourth quarter, I am happy to report a non-GAAP gross margin of 17.6% and $1.70 in non-GAAP diluted earnings per share.”
The same call set fiscal 2027 revenue guidance at $65 billion to $72 billion against $39.1 billion in fiscal 2026. On September 23, Super Micro began shipping Nvidia Vera Rubin NVL72 racks, and the shares rose 1.9% premarket to $42.
The one-year chart shows why. Super Micro stock gave up 41% between early October and early January, and a 41% gain from that depressed base still lands 17% short of the starting price.
The two charts capture different starting points: Super Micro is up 41% from its January 2 close, but remains 17% below its October 2, 2025 close after the sharp decline late last year and the March selloff.
TIKR Values SMCI Stock at $90, Pricing In a 105% Return by 2031
TIKR’s mid-case model values Super Micro at $90 by June 2031, implying 105% total return from the current price of $44, or 16% annualized over 4.7 years.
That target sits 79% above the June high near $50, a level the stock reached once this year and gave back within weeks.
The target is reachable because the fiscal fourth quarter reset the earnings base with a 17.6% non-GAAP gross margin and $1.70 in non-GAAP EPS, while more than $60 billion in new orders strengthened the revenue outlook and the board’s August 20 finding addressed the management question behind the March selloff.
So what is Super Micro Computer stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what SMCI stock could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
