Key Takeaways
- Carlisle (CSL) raised its dividend 14% in August, to $1.25 per quarter, its 50th straight annual increase.
- TIKR’s valuation model points to around $425 by the end of 2028, a total return of around 29%, or about 12% a year.
- The catch is earnings, which have been roughly flat since 2022 even as the dividend climbed around 63% and the share count fell.
- The next quarterly report will show how much of this summer’s growth was real demand and how much was customers buying early.
Carlisle Companies (CSL) has raised its dividend for 50 straight years, and the stock has still lost around 12% over the past twelve months, closing at $329.34 on Oct. 2. So when TIKR’s valuation model points to a total return of around 29% by the end of 2028, the first question is what has to go right.
The answer is less dramatic than the headline. The model needs revenue growth of around 5% a year, which is where analysts already are, and it lets the P/E multiple slip to around 15x from around 17x. The return comes from steady earnings growth, not from the market suddenly paying more.
| Metric | Reference point | TIKR model, through 2028 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth (annual) | Street, next two years: 5% | 5% |
| Operating margin | Past year: 23% | 21% |
| P/E multiple | Past year: 17x | 15x |
| Stock price | $329.34 (Oct. 2 close) | Around $425 |
| Annualized return | n/a | About 12% |
Source: TIKR’s guided valuation model and TIKR data, with prices at the Oct. 2, 2026 close. Model outputs are rounded.
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The dividend has outrun earnings
The streak is the place to start. Carlisle raised its quarterly dividend 14% in August, to $1.25 a share, for 50 consecutive years of increases and an annual rate of $5.00. The yield is only around 1.5%, and the payout ratio sits near 25%, so the growth of the check is what stands out, not the size of it today.
The chart below puts the dividend next to normalized earnings per share, which is where the story gets more interesting.
Dividends per share rose from $2.58 in 2022 to $4.20 in 2025, a gain of around 63%, while normalized EPS went from $20.01 to $19.40 over the same stretch. In plain terms, the payout has crept up from around 13% of earnings to around 22% without earnings growing to support it. It is still a low payout, but a dividend can’t outrun profit forever, and analysts expect earnings to resume growth, to around $27 per share by 2028.
The share count keeps shrinking
Carlisle’s other lever is its buyback program. The weighted average share count dropped from 52.5 million in 2021 to 42.8 million in 2025, and the company now has roughly 40 million shares outstanding. Management also raised its 2026 repurchase target to $1.2 billion. That’s about 9% of the company’s market value, and nearly six times what Carlisle pays in dividends.
The chart below shows how far the share count has already come.
A share count down around 18% in four years means every dollar of profit is split among fewer owners. Flat earnings per share on 17% fewer shares also means total profit was lower in 2025 than in 2022, which is a useful reality check on the story.
What the 29% really requires
TIKR’s valuation model puts Carlisle at around $425 by the end of 2028, which works out to a total return of roughly 29%, or about 12% a year. The assumptions are fairly modest.
Revenue grows about 5% annually, operating margin slips to roughly 21% from 23%, and the P/E falls to around 15x from 17x. In other words, the model doesn’t need a higher multiple to make the numbers work. It just needs Carlisle to keep growing at a steady pace.
The chart below shows the path.
Wall Street’s average target of around $410 is a 12-month figure, about 25% above the recent close, so the model’s 12% a year isn’t more aggressive than the Street’s one-year view.
Margins are becoming the pressure point across roofing, not just at Carlisle. Amrize, another roofing competitor, grew Building Envelope sales 9.4% last quarter, but its adjusted EBITDA margin fell 350 basis points to 22.6%. Carlisle’s construction materials business, which includes roofing, grew 8% while holding a 30.7% margin, down just 90 basis points.
On the bull side, the dividend is covered with room to spare, roofing demand has held up, and the company is retiring shares at a steady clip. The bear case is that earnings per share haven’t grown since 2022, so the forecast depends on a turnaround, and Carlisle said part of this summer’s growth came from customers buying ahead of price increases.
For me, the number to watch is organic volume over the next two quarters, since it will show how much of the growth was real demand and how much was borrowed from the future.
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So what is Carlisle stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
