Key Stats for Marriott Stock
- 52-Week Range: $253.76 to $410.98
- Current Price: $383.06
- Street Mean Target: $384.83
- NTM P/E: 31.5x
- NTM EV/EBITDA: 19.1x
- LTM EBIT Margin: 59.3%
- Market Cap: $101 billion
Track Marriott’s fee revenue trajectory and EBITDA margin expansion in real time. See whether Q2 estimates hold as the Middle East headwind peaks. Check MAR’s financials on TIKR for free
Why Marriott Has Quietly Become One of 2026’s Best Performers
Marriott International (MAR) is not the kind of company that generates breathless enthusiasm, but it has quietly posted a 22% year-to-date return that most investors would take.
Global travel demand has remained more resilient than skeptics expected, and Marriott’s asset-light model has kept converting that demand into high-margin fee income.
Worldwide RevPAR, which measures room revenue per available room and is the hotel industry’s primary gauge of demand health, rose 4.2% in Q1, above the high end of management’s own expectations.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.4 billion, up 15%, and CEO Anthony Capuano pointed to the Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program, now at nearly 283 million members, as a competitive advantage that drives direct bookings and reduces dependence on online travel agencies.
EPS climbed from $3.19 in 2021 to nearly $10 by 2023, and consensus projects continued growth toward around $11.63 in 2026 and approaching $19.54 by 2030.
Management guided full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $11.38 to $11.63, in line with where the Street sits.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Marriott stock (It’s free!) >>>
The Business Model Behind the Numbers
Marriott owns almost no hotels outright. Instead, it earns franchise fees, base management fees, and incentive management fees from hotels operating under its 30-plus brands, ranging from Courtyard and Fairfield at the select tier to Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis at the luxury end.
Hotel owners take the real estate risk; Marriott collects the fee income. Growth comes from two levers running in parallel: RevPAR increases that lift fees on existing rooms, and net room additions of around 4% to 5% annually from a development pipeline that just hit a record at nearly 618,000 rooms.
Share buybacks reduce the share count on top of that, which is how EPS grows faster than revenue. It is a genuinely durable model, and it has worked consistently across different travel cycles.
Where things get more complicated is valuation. The long-term EV/EBITDA mean for Marriott sits at 16.2x, and pre-COVID the stock typically traded between roughly 12x and 18x, well below where it sits today.
The multiple briefly spiked to 30x during the post-COVID recovery euphoria before compressing back toward normal.
Today it sits at 19.1x, meaningfully above the long-run average. Investors are paying a premium to history for growth that is solid but not exceptional.
Read the full Marriott Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 guidance breakdown >>>
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
At around $383, Marriott trades at nearly 32 times next-twelve-month earnings, and the TIKR valuation model reflects what that multiple means for forward returns.
The mid-case assumes revenue growth of around 4% annually with net income margins expanding toward 11.5%, and after working through those assumptions, arrives at a target price of around $433 over roughly four years.
Annualized, that works out to approximately 3.4% per year, one of the most modest mid-case returns for a business of this caliber that the model has produced.
The low case barely clears current prices, and even the high case, which assumes slightly better growth and margins, gets to around $586 at roughly 5.5% per year. Both scenarios assume mild multiple compression going forward, which is reasonable given where EV/EBITDA currently sits relative to its long-run history.
Most of the return in every scenario is driven by earnings growth rather than any expansion in the multiple investors are willing to pay.
Should You Buy Marriott Stock?
Marriott is one of the best-run hospitality businesses in the world. The asset-light model is durable, the pipeline is at a record, and Bonvoy is a genuine competitive moat. For investors already holding shares, the quality justifies staying.
For those considering a new position, the math is harder to ignore. The stock sits essentially at the Street’s mean target of around $385, the TIKR mid-case implies around 3% annualized returns, and the current multiple sits above its long-run average.
Marriott deserves a place on any quality watchlist, but whether it deserves a spot in the portfolio right now depends on how much return investors need to justify the entry.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
