Key Takeaways for Target Corporation Stock as of July 2026
- Twelve analysts rate Target stock a buy, 23 a hold, and 3 a sell.
- TIKR’s mid-case model prices Target stock at $182 by January 2031, a 33% total return and 7% annualized from the current price.
- With EPS Normalized set to climb 10% to $2.26 in the July 2026 quarter and hold near $2.54 by January 2027, Target stock still trades below what that recovery is worth.
- On May 20, 2026, Target raised full-year EPS guidance toward the high end of $7.50 to $8.50, after first-quarter comp sales grew 5.6% on a 4.4% jump in traffic.
Target Stock Climbs as Q1 Comps Jump 5.6% and EPS Guidance Hits the High End
Target Corporation (TGT) posted a 6.7% jump in first-quarter net sales to $25.4 billion on May 20, 2026, its strongest comparable sales quarter in years. Comparable sales rose 5.6%, driven by a 4.4% increase in traffic that reversed a 2.4% traffic decline from a year earlier.
That traffic gain showed up everywhere at once. Growth touched all six of Target’s core merchandise divisions, with the sharpest gains coming from baby, wellness and food, where the company added 1,500 new wellness items and 3,000 new food items during the quarter, with sales from those new food items growing more than 50% over the prior assortment.
CFO Jim Lee tied that strength directly to Target’s earnings outlook on the Q1 2027 earnings call: “We previously provided an EPS range of $7.50 to $8.50. Given the profit upside we saw in the first quarter, we are now expecting to end the year near the high end of that range.” That commitment followed a quarter where EPS Normalized hit $1.71, up 31.5% year over year, while gross margin expanded 80 basis points to 29%.
Consensus models now expect that reacceleration to continue. EPS Normalized is projected to rise 10% to $2.26 in the July 2026 quarter, another 7% to $1.90 by October, and to $2.54 by January 2027, up 4% year over year, before settling near $2.41 in July 2027.
Management also widened its full-year net sales growth outlook to 4%, two percentage points above its prior range, while flagging that April’s tax-refund tailwind will fade over the rest of the year. Jim Lee was careful to frame the raise as a flow-through of first-quarter strength rather than a change in view on the consumer, noting Target still faces its hardest year-over-year comparison of 2026 in the second quarter.
The combination leaves Target stock trading on a turnaround the Street has only begun to fully price in.
Wall Street Rates Target Stock a Hold With a Tight $134 Mean Target
Wall Street holds a cautious stance on Target stock, with 12 buy ratings, 23 holds and 3 sells among the 38 analysts tracked as of July 24, 2026. The $134 mean target sits 2% below the stock’s $137 close, a target-to-price ratio of 98%, the tightest gap of the past year.
That mean has climbed from $101 in January 2026 to $134 today, even as the high estimate reaches $162 and the low sits at $92, a spread of $70 across the 34 analysts who supply price targets. The consensus has followed Target stock higher over the past six months, but it has not caught up to it.
That lag looks sharper next to the stock’s own path higher. Target stock hit a maximum drawdown of 22% on November 20, 2025, and it now trades just 1% below its recent high, a recovery Wall Street’s $134 mean target has yet to catch up to.
Wall Street Expects TGT Stock’s EPS Normalized to Reaccelerate Through Fiscal 2027
Target’s EPS Normalized reached $1.71 in the quarter ended April 30, 2026, up 32% year over year after three straight quarters of decline. Analysts expect that reacceleration to continue, with EPS Normalized rising 10% to $2.26 in the July 2026 quarter and climbing another 7% to $1.90 by October 2026.
The estimates extend further out too. EPS Normalized is projected to reach $2.54 by January 2027, up 4% year over year, and hold near $2.41 by July 2027, a 7% gain over the same period last year.
The open question is whether Target can sustain double-digit EPS Normalized growth once it laps this year’s easier comparisons in the back half of fiscal 2026.
TIKR Values Target Stock at $182, Pricing In a Sustained EPS Recovery
TIKR’s mid-case model values Target stock at $182 by January 2031, a 33% total return from the current price of $137, or 7% annualized over the next 4.5 years.
That annualized return positions Target stock as a steady compounder rather than a re-rating trade, in line with a retailer still mid-way through a multiyear turnaround rather than a broken growth story.
The target is anchored to the EPS Normalized reacceleration already underway, from $1.71 in the April 2026 quarter to a projected $2.26 in July 2026, the same momentum behind management’s decision to guide toward the high end of its $7.50 to $8.50 EPS range. That trajectory, carried through the $2.54 estimate for January 2027, is what the TIKR model is pricing as it builds toward $182.
Should You Invest in Target Corporation?
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Pull up Target Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
