Key Takeaways for Lockheed Martin Stock as of July 2026
- Guidance Reset: Lockheed Martin raised full-year 2026 sales guidance to $79.75B to $81.75B, an 8% YoY increase at the midpoint, up from 5% guided just one quarter ago.
- Analyst Split: Wall Street rates Lockheed Martin stock 5 buys, 2 outperforms, 13 holds, 2 no opinions and 1 sell, with a mean target of $616.
- Backlog Record: Q2 backlog hit an all-time high of $230B on a 3.2:1 book-to-bill ratio, and the $35B THAAD contract alone quadruples interceptor production over 7 years.
- Valuation Gap: TIKR’s model targets $790 by December 2030, a 36% total return and 7% annualized, well above the Street’s implied 6% upside from $583.
Lockheed Martin Stock’s Guidance Jump Signals a Revenue Inflection the Street Hasn’t Priced In
Lockheed Martin (LMT) raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance to $79.75 billion to $81.75 billion on July 23, an 8% year-over-year increase at the midpoint, up from the 5% growth it guided just one quarter earlier. Lockheed Martin stock has not caught up to that shift yet, still trading 13.91% below its 2026 peak even after the announcement lifted shares 2.46% on the day.
The revision follows a second quarter in which revenue climbed 11% year-over-year to $20.1 billion and the backlog hit an all-time high of $230 billion, up $64 billion from a year ago, with a book-to-bill ratio of 3.2 to 1. CFO Evan Scott tied the raise directly to volume rather than one-time items on the Q2 earnings call: “This uplift is driven primarily by higher volume on F-35 production in aero, radars and RMS.” That volume push includes the $35 billion, seven-year THAAD interceptor contract the Missile Defense Agency awarded in late June, an award that quadruples production and converts one of Lockheed Martin’s munitions framework agreements into a locked, priced contract for the first time.
Lockheed Martin’s EBIT margin snapback to 12% from 4% and its $3 billion free cash flow swing to $2.9 billion confirm the second-quarter acceleration is a real operating recovery, not just a guidance number.
The acceleration is not confined to one segment. Missiles & Fire Control revenue grew 19% year-over-year in the quarter with profit up 24%, and management now expects all four segments, Aeronautics, Missiles & Fire Control, Rotary & Mission Systems and Space, to grow faster in the second half of 2026 than they did in the first. Second-half sales growth is now guided to 7% to 12% year-over-year, well above the mid-single-digit pace Lockheed Martin posted through the first six months of the year. CEO Jim Taiclet framed the shift as structural rather than seasonal, pointing to years of pre-positioned capacity: “For the past several years, we’ve been increasing munitions capacity ahead of contracted demand.”
Production capacity, not demand, is the real constraint behind that recovery, since Lockheed Martin is only three to four years into ramping Patriot output from 650 to 2,000 missiles a year, and much of the near-term EPS jump still reflects easing comps against 2025’s classified program charges.
That gap, mid-single-digit growth already delivered against a guidance range implying a jump to double digits, is the development repricing Lockheed Martin stock right now.
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Lockheed Martin Stock Sits 14% Below Its Peak While the Street Holds at $616
Lockheed Martin stock hit a maximum drawdown of 27% on June 24, 2026, before recovering 13.44 percentage points to trade 14% below its high as of July 24.
The rebound tracks the guidance raise and the THAAD award directly, but the drop into a 27% hole earlier this year happened while the backlog was already building toward its current record, meaning the stock fell furthest right before the fundamentals turned. Lockheed Martin stock remains double digits under its peak even after a quarter carrying a record backlog and an accelerating growth outlook.
Wall Street rates Lockheed Martin stock 5 buys, 2 outperforms, 13 holds, 2 no opinions and 1 sell as of July 24, 2026, among 19 analysts with price targets. The mean target sits at $616, implying 6% upside from the $583 close, down sharply from a mean target that reached 123% of the share price back in June.
That compression suggests the Street has not yet folded the guidance raise or the THAAD contract into its targets, leaving the analyst consensus well behind the pace of the last two months of news.
TIKR Values Lockheed Martin Stock at $790, Pricing In the Munitions Ramp
TIKR’s mid-case model values Lockheed Martin stock at $790 by December 2030, implying 36% total return from the current price of $583, or 7% annualized over 4.4 years.
That 7% annualized return positions Lockheed Martin stock as a steady multiyear compounder rather than the sharp re-rating its guidance jump might suggest on its own, a return profile closer to a defense-sector bond proxy than a growth stock racing to catch up with its backlog.
The model’s return case rests on Lockheed Martin converting its record $230 billion backlog and the guidance raise to 8% sales growth into sustained multiyear execution, the same acceleration behind the THAAD contract and the broad-based ramp across all four segments. Every segment guided higher this quarter and three of four guided higher on profit, the breadth the model is pricing into its 2030 target rather than a single program bet.
Should You Invest in Lockheed Martin Corporation?
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Pull up Lockheed Martin Corporation stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
