Key Takeaways for Amgen Stock as of July 2026
- Guidance Raise: Amgen lifted 2026 revenue guidance to $37.1B-$38.5B and non-GAAP EPS guidance to $21.70-$23.10, citing growth drivers already running ahead of plan.
- Growth Driver Surge: Six key franchises, Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, rare disease, innovative oncology and biosimilars, grew 24% YoY and now supply 70% of product sales.
- TIKR Target: TIKR’s model values Amgen stock at $471, a 25% total return and 5% annualized gain by a December 2030 realization.
- MariTide Switch: Amgen opened a 300-patient MariTide switch trial this quarter.
Amgen Stock Gets a MariTide Lift From New Switch and Dosing Data
Amgen (AMGN) is leaning on MariTide’s next data set to prove its obesity bet is real, disclosing on its April 30, 2026 first-quarter call that it has opened a Phase III SWITCH study enrolling 300 patients currently on weekly Wegovy or Zepbound doses. The trial will move those patients onto MariTide’s every 8-week or 12-week schedule and track body weight change after 52 weeks, the first head-to-head test of converting existing GLP-1 patients rather than chasing new ones.
Amgen also disclosed fresh tolerability data behind that bet. Chief Research and Development Officer Jay Bradner told analysts on the Q1 earnings call: “The level of nausea and vomiting observed with 3-step dose escalation is lower than we’ve seen before.” That progression, from 1-step to 2-step to 3-step escalation, has cut GI side effects at each stage Amgen has tested, and it is the evidence the company needs before regulators and prescribers will treat MariTide as more than a weekly-injection alternative.
The switch data lands as Amgen raises its own bar for 2026, lifting full-year revenue guidance to $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings guidance to $21.70 to $23.10 a share. Six growth drivers, Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE, rare disease, innovative oncology and biosimilars, grew 24% year over year and supplied 70% of first-quarter product sales, the base management says will fund MariTide’s 2027 launch push without leaving an earnings gap. A federal judge’s July 1 ruling blocking Colorado’s price cap on Enbrel now protects $2.23 billion of the revenue base funding MariTide’s 2027 launch, offsetting the 3% EBITDA decline that Prolia and XGEVA’s biosimilar erosion drove in the first quarter.
That combination, a differentiated switch mechanism plus a revenue base already outrunning patent losses, is what should reprice Amgen stock ahead of MariTide’s approval, not the weekly efficacy data investors have fixated on so far.
Amgen Stock Trims a 17% Drawdown as Analysts Stay Divided
Amgen stock hit a maximum drawdown of 17% on May 4, 2026, as investors weighed the IRS tax overhang and pre-launch MariTide spending against the quarter’s growth numbers.
Shares have since clawed back to sit just 3% below their high, tracking the same guidance raise and SWITCH study news detailed above.
Wall Street remains split on the stock: ten analysts rate it a buy, four call it an outperform, seventeen sit on hold, one says underperform and two recommend selling. The $357 mean target sits about 5% below Amgen’s $376 close on July 24, even after climbing from $314 a year earlier as estimates caught up with the stock’s rally.
TIKR Values Amgen Stock at $471, Pricing In MariTide’s Long-Term Payoff
TIKR’s mid-case model values Amgen stock at $471 by a December 2030 realization, implying 25% total return from the current $376 price, or 5% annualized over 4.4 years.
That 5% annualized pace trails the double-digit growth investors typically demand from late-stage pharma bets tied to a single pipeline catalyst, positioning Amgen stock closer to a steady compounder than a binary MariTide wager.
The model’s confidence traces directly to the SWITCH study and the 3-step dose escalation data disclosed this quarter, the evidence Amgen needs to convert existing GLP-1 patients rather than compete only for new ones. Combined with growth drivers already running at 24% and covering 70% of sales, that gives the target price a revenue base wide enough to absorb MariTide’s remaining development costs before the drug ever reaches the market.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
