Key Takeaways for Amgen Stock as of July 2026
- Ten buys, four outperforms, seventeen holds, one underperform and two sells value Amgen stock’s mean target at $355, a 5% discount to the $374 close.
- TIKR’s mid-case model puts Amgen stock at $469 by December 2030, a 25% total return worth 5% annualized from the $374 close over the next four and a half years.
- On July 1, a judge shielded Enbrel’s $2.23 billion franchise from Colorado’s price cap.
Amgen Stock Jumps 3.55% as Court Blocks Colorado’s Enbrel Price Cap
Amgen Inc (AMGN) develops biologic medicines for cardiovascular disease, cancer, rare autoimmune conditions and inflammation.
Amgen stock closed at $374 on July 2, up 3.55%, a day after a federal judge blocked Colorado’s first-of-its-kind price cap on the arthritis drug Enbrel.
Chief Judge Daniel Domenico ruled that Amgen would likely suffer significant and irreparable harm from a cap that would have cut Enbrel’s price to $31,200 a year from a list price above $100,000. That decision protects a drug that generated $2.23 billion in 2025 sales.
The relief arrives in the middle of Amgen’s steepest patent cliff. EBITDA fell 3% year over year in the first quarter to $4.84 billion, a 56.1% margin, as Prolia and XGEVA combined dropped 32% to $1.1 billion on biosimilar competition. CFO Peter Griffith addressed the resulting cost pressure directly on the Q1 earnings call: “Our non-GAAP cost of sales as a percentage of product sales was 19.5%, driven by higher profit share and royalty expenses and changes in our sales mix. We expect these factors will continue to negatively impact the cost of sales in future quarters.”
That pressure is exactly what six growth drivers exist to absorb. Repatha grew 34% to $876 million, EVENITY climbed 27% to $562 million and TEZSPIRE rose 20% to $343 million, while UPLIZNA nearly tripled to $262 million across three autoimmune indications. Those drivers, plus IMDELLTRA’s $258 million oncology quarter and the PAVBLU biosimilar’s $280 million, made up 70% of product sales and grew 24% as a group. Amgen also raised full-year guidance to $37.1 billion to $38.5 billion in revenue and $21.70 to $23.10 in non-GAAP earnings per share after the print.
Even so, the Enbrel win does not erase every regulatory overhang. The FDA has proposed withdrawing TAVNEOS after tying the rare-disease drug to 76 liver injury cases and eight deaths, and the EMA recommended revoking its European authorization on June 26.
Wall Street’s Mean Target Trails AMGN Stock’s Current Price
Amgen stock carries a mixed consensus of 10 buys, 4 outperforms, 17 holds, 1 underperform and 2 sells across 34 covering analysts.
The $355 mean target, built from 29 individual price estimates, sits 5% below the $374 close, with a median target also at $355. The high estimate stands at $427 and the low at $200, a wide bracket for Amgen stock heading into the second half of 2026.
Amgen Stock’s EBITDA Growth Is Set to Flip Positive by the Fourth Quarter
Amgen’s EBITDA fell 3% year over year in the first quarter to $4.84 billion, a 56.1% margin, as denosumab erosion and higher royalty costs outpaced the six growth drivers picking up the slack.
That contraction is set to deepen before it turns. Consensus has EBITDA falling 5% in the second quarter to $5.38 billion, a 57.1% margin, before narrowing to a 1% decline in the third quarter at $5.55 billion, a 57.3% margin.
The turn comes in the fourth quarter, when EBITDA is projected to grow 8% to $5.56 billion against a softer year-ago base. That would mark the first quarter of EBITDA growth since the third quarter of 2025.
Whether that inflection holds depends on how quickly the six growth drivers keep outrunning the Prolia and XGEVA decline, the threshold that will decide whether Amgen stock’s current price already reflects the turn.
TIKR’s $469 Target on AMGN Stock Holds if the EBITDA Turn Arrives on Schedule
TIKR’s mid-case model values Amgen stock at $469 by December 2030, a 25% total return, or 5% annualized, from the current price of $374 over the next four and a half years.
A 5% annualized return is modest against Amgen stock’s historical swings.
Should You Invest in Amgen Inc?
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