Key Stats for Nike Stock
- Price change for Nike stock in last 6 months: -35%
- $NKE Share Price as of Jun. 30: $41
- 52-Week High: $80
- $NKE Stock Price Target: $55
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What Happened?
Nike (NKE) stock dropped as much as 8% in after-hours trading Tuesday before recovering much of those losses, even after the company posted fiscal Q4 results that beat Wall Street expectations on both the top and bottom lines.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.20, well above the $0.13 expected by analysts. Revenue reached $10.97 billion, slightly ahead of the $10.86 billion consensus.
However, one big factor skewed the headline numbers. Nike recorded a nearly $986 million tariff refund after the Supreme Court struck down many of President Trump’s global duties, contributing $0.52 per share to earnings.
Analysts excluded that benefit from their adjusted estimates, which is why Nike stock’s drop after the beat might feel counterintuitive.
Excluding the tariff refund, gross margin would have been roughly flat year-over-year. Nike has already collected over $300 million of that refund in cash, with the rest recorded as receivables.
- Revenue fell 1% from the prior year to $10.97 billion.
- North America, Nike’s largest market, grew 3% to $4.83 billion.
- Greater China dropped 12% to $1.30 billion, though that still beat the $1.24 billion Wall Street had expected.
- CEO Elliott Hill said on the analyst call that Nike is “fully committed to winning” China back, but acknowledged the company isn’t living up to its potential there yet.
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What the Market Is Telling Us About Nike Stock
Nike’s after-hours stock decline reflects a market that’s still cautious about the pace of the turnaround.
Sportswear and Jordan Streetwear both declined double digits in the quarter, and Hill was candid that these two categories, which together represent roughly half of Nike’s revenue, remain the biggest challenge. Sell-through remains soft, and future order books are being affected.
However, there are bright spots, given Nike Running has grown for five consecutive quarters, adding nearly $1 billion in revenue over that stretch.
North America wholesale grew 10%, and for the first time in over four years, both Nike revenue and retail sales at Foot Locker grew in the same quarter.
World Cup momentum is also building, with Nike’s advertising far outpacing rivals.
Looking ahead, Nike guided for earnings to be roughly flat through the first two fiscal quarters of 2027, with revenue expected to be down low to mid-single digits. Gross margin expansion is expected to start as early as Q1.
The company is also managing a CFO transition, with former Pfizer executive David Denton replacing Matt Friend on August 17.
Nike stock still faces real headwinds. But the foundation is gradually improving.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
