Key Stats for Core & Main Stock
- Current Price: $49(June 10, 2026)
- Q1 FY2026 Net Sales: $1.9B, beat Street estimate by 0.85%
- Q1 FY2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS: $0.72, +6% YoY
- Q1 FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $226M, +1% YoY; margin 11.8%
- Q1 FY2026 Gross Margin: 27.2%, +50 bps YoY
- FY2026 Full-Year Guidance (reaffirmed): Net sales $7.8B–$7.9B, Adjusted EBITDA $950M–$980M
- TIKR Model Price Target: $64
- Implied Upside: 30%
Core & Main Stock Beats on Q1 Revenue and EPS as Municipal Demand Holds Firm
Core & Main (CNM) opened fiscal 2026 with first-quarter net sales of $1.9B, beating the Street estimate by 0.85% and delivering adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72, up 6% versus the prior year, against a tough comparison when the company grew approximately 10%.
The result came despite a year-over-year decline in residential lot development, Core & Main’s most challenged end market, as municipal volumes held firm on repair-and-replacement activity and growth in high-value solution categories.
Gross margin expanded 50 basis points to 27.2%, driven by private label penetration, sourcing optimization, and disciplined pricing execution, continuing a structural improvement trajectory that management has flagged as durable.
Mark Witkowski, Chief Executive Officer, stated on the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call that “in the first quarter, we delivered solid results despite a dynamic macroeconomic environment and strong prior-year comparison,” connecting the performance directly to ongoing municipal repair-and-replace demand and disciplined execution across the branch network.
Smart utility and treatment plant solutions both posted above-market growth, with smart utility up high single digits and treatment plant delivering double-digit gains, and the company secured several additional large and multiyear project wins following what it described as the largest smart utility contract in U.S. history, awarded in the prior quarter.
Fire protection sales rose 17% year-over-year, benefiting from data center construction activity, multifamily demand, and higher steel prices, with management indicating Core & Main is capturing share in the product line alongside favorable end-market tailwinds.
Core & Main opened five new greenfield locations in the quarter and remains on track to open a record 8 to 10 in fiscal 2026, extending its local service model into underpenetrated markets while the M&A pipeline has grown notably more active, with management signaling multiple opportunities in late stages of the evaluation process.
The company repurchased $88M of its own shares in Q1, reducing the share count by approximately 1.8 million shares, the highest single-quarter open-market buyback in its history, and fiscal year-to-date repurchases have already reached $125M, roughly 80% of all repurchases made in all of fiscal 2025.
Robyn Bradbury, Chief Financial Officer, outlined the full-year trajectory on the Q1 fiscal 2026 earnings call, guiding to slight sequential revenue growth in Q2 and low-to-mid single-digit growth in Q3 and Q4 as residential comps ease and project backlogs, which have been building across all end markets, begin to release.
Is Core & Main Stock Undervalued? TIKR’s Base Case Points to 30% Upside
TIKR’s base case values Core & Main stock at approximately $64 by January 2031, implying around 30% total return from the current price of $49.44, or roughly 6% annualized over approximately 5 years.
If municipal momentum sustains and smart utility and treatment plant solutions continue compounding at their 5-year CAGRs of approximately 15% and 25% respectively, the high case produces a stock price of approximately $86, implying around 73% total return, or roughly 7% annualized.
The base case assumes modest P/E compression of around 2% annually and arrives at approximately $72 by January 2035 with roughly 46% total return, or around 5% annualized.
If residential remains depressed and municipal volumes soften, the low case produces a price of approximately $59, implying roughly 19% total return, or around 2% annualized.
How Did Core & Main Perform in Q1 Fiscal 2026?
Core & Main delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $0.72 in Q1 fiscal 2026, up 6% year-over-year, on net sales of $1.9B that beat the Street estimate by 0.85%.
Gross margin expanded 50 basis points to 27.2%, supported by private label growth, sourcing optimization, and disciplined pricing execution.
Smart utility and treatment plant solutions both posted above-market growth, while fire protection sales rose 17% on data center demand and higher steel prices.
Management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $7.8B–$7.9B in net sales and $950M–$980M in adjusted EBITDA, signaling confidence in a back-half weighted revenue acceleration.
Is Core & Main Stock Undervalued?
TIKR’s base case values Core & Main stock at approximately $64 by January 2031, implying around 30% total return from the current price of roughly $49, or about 6% annualized.
The company expanded gross margins 50 basis points year-over-year in Q1, continuing a structural improvement trajectory that underpins the base case earnings assumption.
The key variable is municipal demand continuity: if repair-and-replace activity holds and smart utility contract wins sustain double-digit growth, the base case is well supported.
Should You Invest in Core & Main, Inc.?
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