Key Stats for Rubrik Stock
- Current Price: ~$77 (June 4, 2026)
- Q1 FY2027 Subscription ARR: $1.57B, +32% YoY
- Q1 FY2027 Total Revenue: $387M, +39% YoY
- Q1 FY2027 Adjusted EPS: $0.16, beat vs. Street estimate of ($0.03)
- Q1 FY2027 Free Cash Flow: $74M (vs. $33M in Q1 FY2026)
- FY2027 Subscription ARR Guidance (raised): $1.854B–$1.862B, ~27% YoY growth
- FY2027 Total Revenue Guidance (raised): $1.638B–$1.648B
- TIKR Model Price Target: ~$486
- Implied Upside: ~531%
Rubrik Stock Posts Record Q1 as ARR Acceleration and Free Cash Flow Surge Force a Guidance Raise
Rubrik, Inc. (RBRK) delivered its strongest first quarter on record, reporting $1.57 billion in subscription ARR and $387 million in total revenue that beat every guided metric, while simultaneously raising its full-year outlook for fiscal 2027.
The ARR result was the sharpest signal: net new subscription ARR of $103 million in a single quarter set a company record for Q1 and confirmed that Rubrik stock is converting enterprise demand for cyber resilience into durable, compounding revenue at scale.
Total revenue of $387 million came in 5.7% ahead of the $366 million Street estimate, with subscription revenue of $374 million growing 41% year over year — the metric that most directly reflects the quality of the recurring base.
Bipul Sinha, CEO, Chairman, and Co-Founder of Rubrik, stated on the Q1 FY2027 earnings call that “we have once again exceeded all guided metrics across top line and profitability,” and tied the guidance raise directly to heightened enterprise urgency around cyber resilience in the AI era.
Free cash flow of $74 million more than doubled the $33 million generated in Q1 FY2026, establishing that operating leverage is converting revenue growth into real cash, not just accounting improvement.
Subscription NRR held at approximately 120%, meaning Rubrik’s existing customers are expanding meaningfully, with customers deploying $1 million or more in subscription ARR growing over 50% year over year.
The Identity business reached over $50 million in subscription ARR in Q1, growing 38% sequentially from Q4, driven by enterprise demand for active directory and identity provider protection following ransomware events that exposed recovery gaps.
Rubrik Agent Cloud, the company’s platform for governing and auditing AI agents, moved from early proof-of-concept deployments to production in its first full quarter of go-to-market effort, with a U.S. financial services firm deploying across AWS Bedrock and Microsoft Copilot as an anchor customer.
The company raised full-year FY2027 subscription ARR guidance to $1.854B–$1.862B and total revenue guidance to $1.638B–$1.648B, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $0.25–$0.35 from the prior $0.07–$0.27, reflecting both outperformance and genuine confidence in the pipeline.
RBRK Stock Valuation Model: TIKR’s $486 Mid-Case Target Points to Multi-Bagger Potential
TIKR’s base case values Rubrik stock at approximately $486 by January 2031, implying around 531% total return from the current price of $77, or roughly 49% annualized over 4.7 years.
If Rubrik sustains its current ARR momentum and the Identity and Agent Cloud businesses continue scaling toward meaningful ARR contributions, the high case produces a price near $951, implying around 1,136% total return at roughly 34% annualized IRR.
If growth decelerates toward the low-case revenue CAGR of approximately 14%, the model still supports a price near $461, implying around 499% total return at roughly 23% annualized IRR.
The low case alone implies a multi-bagger from current levels, anchored by free cash flow already exceeding $74 million in a single quarter and subscription NRR holding above 120%.
Is Rubrik Stock Undervalued Right Now?
TIKR’s base case values Rubrik stock at approximately $486 by January 2031, implying around 531% total return from the current price of $77, or roughly 49% annualized.
Rubrik posted record Q1 net new subscription ARR of $103 million, free cash flow more than doubled year over year to $74 million, and subscription NRR has held above 120%.
The key variable is subscription ARR growth: if Rubrik sustains the 27% full-year guidance trajectory and converts Identity and Agent Cloud into meaningful ARR contributors, the base case is well supported.
How Did Rubrik Perform in Q1 FY2027 Earnings?
Rubrik delivered adjusted EPS of $0.16 in Q1 FY2027, beating the Street estimate of ($0.03) by a substantial margin. Total revenue reached $387 million, 39% above the prior-year figure, while subscription ARR grew 32% to $1.57 billion.
Free cash flow of $74 million more than doubled from $33 million in Q1 FY2026, driven by operating leverage and higher sales efficiency.
Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $0.25–$0.35 from the prior range of $0.07–$0.27, signaling durable execution confidence.
What Is the Rubrik Stock Forecast for 2026?
TIKR’s mid-case model targets approximately $486 for Rubrik stock by January 2031, but the near-term setup is defined by the FY2027 guidance raise: subscription ARR of $1.854B–$1.862B and total revenue of $1.638B–$1.648B.
Rubrik posted record Q1 metrics across ARR, free cash flow, and profitability, and raised full-year EPS guidance to $0.25–$0.35.
The primary catalyst for re-rating in 2026 is the Analyst Day on June 10 in Las Vegas, where management is expected to detail the agentic cyber resilience roadmap and TAM expansion.
Should You Invest in Rubrik, Inc.?
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