Key Stats for J.M. Smucker Stock
- Current Price: ~$112 (June 9, 2026)
- Q4 FY26 Revenue: $2.268B, +6% YoY
- Q4 FY26 Adjusted EPS: $2.77, beat Street estimate of $2.64 by ~5%
- Q4 FY26 EBITDA: $557M, beat Street estimate of $545M by ~2%
- Q4 FY26 Free Cash Flow: $484M, beat Street estimate of $296M by ~63%
- FY26 Free Cash Flow: $1.2B (company high)
- Uncrustables: crossed $1B in annual sales
- TIKR Model Price Target (April 2031): ~$156
- Implied Upside: ~39%
J.M. Smucker Stock Surges 10% on Q4 FY26 Beat as Free Cash Flow Hits a Company Record and Uncrustables Crosses $1 Billion
J.M. Smucker stock (SJM) jumped more than 10% after the company reported Q4 FY26 results that beat Street expectations on adjusted EPS, EBITDA, and free cash flow while delivering Uncrustables’ first $1 billion sales milestone.
Adjusted EPS of $2.77 cleared the $2.64 Street estimate by approximately 5%, and free cash flow of $484M for the quarter nearly doubled the $296M consensus, the single sharpest beat in the earnings table.
For the full fiscal year, J.M. Smucker generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow, a company record that enabled $700M in debt repayment and $450M in dividends paid, while exiting the year at roughly 3.8x leverage with a stated target of 3x by the end of FY27.
Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer, stated on the Q4 FY26 earnings call that “$0.15 sort of overdelivered expectations in our fourth quarter,” attributing the outperformance to volume strength across Uncrustables, gross profit improvement, and cost discipline in SD&A across the frozen handheld and pet segments.
The Uncrustables milestone is the structural anchor of the quarter: Mark Smucker, Chief Executive Officer, confirmed on the Q4 FY26 earnings call that “Uncrustables, we hit $1 billion,” with mid-single-digit growth projected for FY27 supported by ongoing distribution expansion, household penetration gains, innovation, and the full portfolio transition to a fridge-friendly format in mid-summer 2026.
The Bustelo coffee brand has crossed $500M in sales and continues to lead within the value segment, reinforcing J.M. Smucker’s position across the full coffee market even as green coffee deflation is expected to compress top-line revenue while expanding segment profit from Q2 FY27 onward.
SJM enters FY27 with a plan to pay down an additional $500M in debt and resume shareholder return optionality, including potential share repurchases, once the leverage ratio reaches the 3x target.
Is J.M. Smucker Stock Undervalued? TIKR’s $156 Model Sees 39% Upside From Current Levels
TIKR’s base case values J.M. Smucker stock at approximately $156 by April 2031, implying around 39% total return from the current price of $112, or roughly 7% annualized over 4.9 years.
The bull case rests on sustained execution across the portfolio: if Uncrustables delivers mid-single-digit volume growth through FY27 and beyond, green coffee deflation flows through to material segment profit improvement in Q2 through Q4 FY27, and the Sweet Baked Snacks business achieves its roughly 30% year-over-year profit growth target, the high case reaches approximately $210, implying around 86% total return or roughly 7% annualized through April 2035.
The bear case is a coffee pass-through that fails to generate expected volume elasticity, combined with Hostess profit improvement that underdelivers against management’s targets, producing a low-case price of approximately $158 through 2035 with around 40% total return, or roughly 4% annualized.
The P/E multiple assumption embedded in TIKR’s mid case assumes roughly 1.2% annual multiple expansion through the forecast period, a modest re-rating that relies on continued free cash flow generation and progress toward the 3x leverage target rather than a material growth reacceleration.
How Did J.M. Smucker Perform in Q4 FY26 Earnings?
J.M. Smucker delivered adjusted EPS of $2.77 in Q4 FY26, beating the $2.64 Street estimate by approximately 5%.
Revenue reached $2.268B, up 6% year over year, while free cash flow of $484M beat the $296M consensus by 63%. Volume momentum in Uncrustables and cost discipline in frozen handheld and pet drove the outperformance.
Management targets approximately $200M in additional debt repayment in FY27 and projects free cash flow of approximately $1B for the year.
Is J.M. Smucker Stock Undervalued?
TIKR’s base case values J.M. Smucker stock at approximately $156 by April 2031, implying around 39% total return from the current price of $112, or roughly 7% annualized.
The company generated $1.2B in free cash flow in FY26, a company record, while Uncrustables crossed $1B in annual sales with mid-single-digit growth projected in FY27.
The key variable is the green coffee profit recovery: if deflation-driven segment profit improvement materializes at the rate embedded in guidance from Q2 FY27 onward, the base case is well supported.
What Is the Outlook for SJM Stock?
J.M. Smucker guided FY27 net sales down 3% to 4% year over year, driven primarily by green coffee price pass-through, with Q1 expected to be roughly flat before deflation flows through from Q2 onward.
The Sweet Baked Snacks business is expected to grow segment profit approximately 30% year over year as cost improvements and a Donettes list price increase take effect.
Free cash flow guidance for FY27 stands at approximately $1B, directed toward $500M of incremental debt reduction and continued dividend support.
Should You Invest in The J. M. Smucker Company?
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