Key Takeaways for Texas Instruments Stock as of July 2026
- Analysts rate Texas Instruments stock 15 buys / 17 holds / 3 sells with a mean target of $298, implying 0% upside from the current price of $298.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values Texas Instruments at $522 by December 2030, implying 75% total return, or 13% annualized.
- Q1 2026 revenue hit $4.83 billion, 19% above the prior year and above the top of guidance, driven by industrial up more than 30% year-over-year and data center up 90% year-over-year.
See Texas Instruments’ full free cash flow trajectory, analyst consensus data, and the TIKR valuation model. Access TXN financials on TIKR for free →
Texas Instruments Stock Surges 19% in Q1 as CapEx Peak Passes and Free Cash Flow Inflects
Texas Instruments (TXN) is one of the biggest designers and manufacturers of analog and embedded processing semiconductors, selling into industrial, automotive, data center, and consumer markets from its own 300-millimeter fabs in Texas.
The company reported Q1 2026 revenue of $4.83 billion, up 19% year-over-year, beating the top of its guided range and marking the strongest top-line growth in several years.
That growth came from every direction simultaneously. Industrial, TXN’s largest segment, grew more than 30% year-over-year and more than 20% sequentially, with CEO Haviv Ilan noting expansion across all sectors and geographies on the Q1 earnings call. Data center grew 90% year-over-year and more than 25% sequentially, reaching 12% of total revenue in the quarter, up from 9% a year ago.
The more important signal is what the growth reveals about the investment cycle. Texas Instruments completed a six-year, $20-plus billion capacity buildout spanning two new fab sites in Sherman, Texas, and a retooled embedded processing fab in Lehi, Utah. CapEx, which peaked during that cycle, is now guided to $2 billion to $3 billion in 2026, down sharply from prior years, with depreciation guided at $2.2 billion to $2.4 billion.
What that means for investors is a mechanical FCF inflection already showing up in the numbers. Trailing 12-month free cash flow rose to $4.4 billion at the end of Q1, up from $1.7 billion in Q1 2025. Asked directly about the free cash flow outlook on the earnings call, Ilan was direct: “I think there is a very high — very likely we will be at that — we’ll easily be at $8 free cash flow per share for 2026.”
Beneath the headline, the data center story adds a structural dimension Wall Street has not fully repriced. Ilan sized the analog and embedded data center addressable market at $7.5 billion in 2025, growing to $12.5 billion in 2026. TI generated $1.5 billion in data center revenue in 2025, implying roughly 20% market share. At 90% year-over-year growth in Q1 2026, that share is being held or extended.
Still, one tension remains. Gross margin, currently 58%, is expanding but has not yet returned to its pre-investment-cycle peak near 70%. Ilan declined to give a gross margin target, directing investors instead to the embedded segment’s improving trajectory as an indicator of what manufacturing internalization does to cost structure over time.
Analyst Consensus on Texas Instruments Stock Is Split as Price Rerates Toward Targets
As of June 30, 2026, 32 analysts cover Texas Instruments stock, rating it 15 buys, 17 holds, and 3 sells. The mean price target stands at $298, exactly matching the current stock price of $298. The high target is $400 and the low is $200, a spread that reflects genuine disagreement on how fast the free cash flow inflection compounds.
The mean target-to-price ratio has compressed from 114% a year ago to 100% today, meaning TXN stock has essentially repriced to where the median analyst thought it would be, shifting the burden of proof to whether estimates need to move higher.
Wall Street Sees Texas Instruments Stock Free Cash Flow Tripling Through Late 2026
Free cash flow per share printed at $0.84 in Q1 2026 (actual). Consensus estimates that figure rising to $1.96 in Q2 2026, a 254% year-over-year increase, with FCF margins expected to hit 37% in Q2 and 37% again in Q3.
Through the back half of 2026, analysts project FCF of $2.08 in Q3 and $2.29 in Q4, implying full-year free cash flow that tracks with Ilan’s public guidance of $8 per share. The FCF margin forecast of 43% in Q4 2026 represents the clearest expression of what the CapEx rolloff does to the cash model at scale.
Looking into 2027, consensus holds FCF roughly flat on a per-quarter basis at $1.99 in Q1 and $2.14 in Q2. The key question is whether the CapEx guidance of $2 billion to $3 billion for 2026 continues declining into 2027, or whether the Silicon Labs acquisition, expected to close in the first half of 2027, requires incremental investment that delays the FCF ramp.
The closing condition: if Q2 2026 results confirm FCF above $1.96 per share when Texas Instruments reports on July 22, consensus estimates for the full year will need to move higher, and the Street’s current mean target of $298 becomes structurally stale.
TIKR’s $522 Target on TXN Stock Holds If Free Cash Flow Follows the CapEx Decline
TIKR’s mid-case model values Texas Instruments at $522 by December 2030, implying 75% total return from the current price of $298, or 13% annualized over 4.5 years.
That return is above typical large-cap semiconductor norms, and the model does not require a new catalyst to get there.
The CapEx cycle is over, utilization is rising, and data center revenue is compounding from a 12% base. The math works if demand holds.
Should You Invest in Texas Instruments Incorporated?
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