Key Stats for LMT Stock
- Past week’s performance: -4.1%
- 52-week range: $410 to $692
- Valuation model target price: $710
- Implied upside: 18.6% over 2.7 years
Value your favorite stocks like LMT with 5 years of analysts’ forecasts using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) stock fell 4.1% last week, despite the company announcing new production-related wins. On March 25, the Pentagon said it had reached new agreements with Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, and Honeywell to expand munitions production, and Lockheed said a related framework would help quadruple the output of the Precision Strike Missile. Reuters also reported that Lockheed and Honeywell shares initially gained on that news.
But the stock still faded later in the week, which suggests investors were taking profits after a strong run in 2026. The shares closed at $599 on March 30, and the stock remains well above its 52-week low of $410. When a stock has already moved sharply higher, even good news can be absorbed without pushing shares higher in the short term.
There were also other defense headlines competing for attention. Reuters reported that Norway will add 115 billion crowns, or about $12 billion, to its long-term defense plan by 2036, which supports the broader defense spending backdrop. But also noted that Norway delayed decisions on some long-range systems, so not every defense headline translated into an immediate benefit for Lockheed.
Space-related news also kept Lockheed relevant last week. NASA’s Artemis II astronauts entered final preparations for the first crewed Moon mission in more than 50 years, with launch targeted as early as April 1, and Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor for the Orion crew capsule. That is strategically important for Lockheed’s Space segment, but it likely mattered less for near-term trading than the company’s core missile and aircraft programs.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for LMT (It’s free) >>>
Is LMT Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 4.9%
- Operating Margins: 12.1%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 17.8x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $710.18, implying 18.6% total upside from the current share price and a 6.4% annualized return over the next 2.7 years.
Lockheed’s valuation looks more reasonable than deeply discounted. A 6.4% annualized return is positive, but it falls below the 10% level that usually signals a more attractive setup in your framework. That suggests the stock may already reflect much of the stronger defense-demand narrative.
The business itself remains large and highly cash generative. In 2025, sales rose 6% to $75.0 billion, cash from operations reached $8.6 billion, free cash flow was $6.9 billion, and backlog hit a record $194 billion. Those numbers matter because backlog supports future revenue visibility, while free cash flow helps fund dividends, buybacks, and factory investment.
Margins are the main debate. Recent data shows a LTM EBIT margin of 9.3% and gross margin of 10.2%, while the valuation model assumes operating margins recover to 12.1% by the end of 2028. That means the valuation case depends less on big revenue acceleration and more on better program execution, mix, and production efficiency.
That caution is understandable because 2025 earnings still carried notable charges. Lockheed said 2025 net earnings were $5.0 billion, or $21.49 per share, and those results included a pension settlement charge plus previously disclosed classified-program losses and other charges.
So investors are paying for a high-quality defense franchise, but they still want proof that margin recovery can offset a more mature growth profile.
What’s Driving LMT Stock Going Forward?
The next clear catalyst is first-quarter 2026 earnings, expected on April 21. Investors will want updates on missile production, classified-program execution, and whether the strong demand backdrop is turning into better margins. Because the stock has already rallied in 2026, guidance quality may matter more than headline revenue growth.
Production scale is a major driver now. Lockheed said on March 25 that the new agreement with the Department of War will help quadruple Precision Strike Missile production, and its product page says PrSM capacity is expected to rise to 550 missiles per year.
Management is also leaning into this demand cycle. In its January results, CEO Jim Taiclet said 2025 marked “a year of unprecedented demand” and said the company expects about 5% sales growth and about 25% growth in reported segment operating profit in 2026.
Lockheed also said it invested more than $3.5 billion in 2025 in production capacity and next-generation technologies, which shows the company is spending to meet demand rather than just harvesting cash.
Investors should also keep watching customer budgets and program timing. Norway’s new defense-spending plan helps the broader NATO demand story, while Artemis II keeps Lockheed visible in space, but the stock will still trade mostly on core execution in missiles, aircraft, and sustainment.
Estimate a company’s fair value instantly (Free with TIKR) >>>
Should You Invest in Lockheed Martin Corporation?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up LMT, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track LMT alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
Analyze Lockheed Martin stock on TIKR Free→
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
