Key Stats for JPMorgan Stock
- Current Price: $335.19
- Target Price (Mid): ~$440
- Street Target: ~$373
- Potential Total Return: ~31%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free) >>>
What Happened?
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) made two October moves that guard the same asset: its deposits. On its October 13 earnings call, management said it is blocking, where it can, outside AI agents that log into Chase accounts with customer credentials. On October 19, the bank expanded JPM Coin, a token representing dollar deposits held at JPMorgan, from Base to Ethereum for institutional clients. The call shows why: deposit and card-loan growth, not rate hikes, drive roughly three-quarters of the growth in JPMorgan’s 2027 interest income outlook. Shares closed at $335.19 on October 21, up 4.0% in 2026.
Rate Hikes Explain Only a Quarter of the 2027 Outlook
JPMorgan guided to about $25.5 billion of fourth-quarter net interest income (NII) excluding markets, meaning what it earns on loans and securities minus what it pays for funding. Annualized, that is roughly $102 billion, against a 2027 central case of about $107 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon cautioned that there is “more uncertainty around that number than normal.”
CFO Jeremy Barnum broke down the gap: “That $5 billion, probably about 1/4 of that, I would say, is related to the yield curve.” He tied the rest to modest consumer deposit growth, continued wholesale deposit growth and card loans.
So the bigger share depends on growing deposits and card loans. Barnum said wholesale deposit growth will probably be a bit weaker than this year’s strong pace. He called possible consumer migration from checking into CDs “totally speculative,” while saying he would “expect a little bit of additional pressure.” Dimon was candid about the stakes: banking services are paid for partly by NII “from money that sits there idle,” and if that stopped working, “over time, you do something different,” such as subscriptions.
The quarter also missed: adjusted EPS of $5.75 trailed the $5.94 Street estimate, and the mean target slipped to about $373 on October 21 from about $376 on September 30, per TIKR.
TIKR tracks 26 analysts on JPMorgan Chase. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on JPMorgan Chase, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See JPMorgan Chase’s Analyst Ratings
Chase Locked Agents Out of Money Movement and Took Its Deposit Token to Ethereum
The deposit risk sharpened after Meta Platforms (META) released its Muse personal agent in September. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell about 2.6% on September 22 on fears agents could sweep idle checking cash into higher-paying accounts, Yahoo Finance reported.
Outside agents cannot log in with customer credentials or move money, though they can still view balances through customer-authorized connectors such as Plaid, a JPMorgan spokeswoman confirmed to CNBC. Dimon warned that “you don’t want rogue agents and there could be thousands of them.” Citigroup (C) and, per a person familiar with the matter, Bank of America (BAC) have also restricted agent access, the Financial Times reported on October 16. JPMorgan is also piloting its own tool, Smart Cash.
The franchise matters more than the block. JPMorgan added roughly 650,000 net new checking accounts in the third quarter, grew Consumer & Community Banking deposits 4% year over year, and kept its No. 1 retail deposit share. Barnum’s view: “you’re probably not supposed to be hoping that your deposits are stable because the money is difficult to move, I guess.”
For institutions, JPM Coin lets approved clients send dollars in seconds, around the clock, on Ethereum, Bloomberg reported. Each token is a claim on a JPMorgan deposit, so client cash settles on-chain while staying at the bank. JPMorgan has not disclosed issuance or client counts, so this is positioning, not yet a revenue line.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $335.19
- Target Price (Mid): ~$440
- Potential Total Return: ~31%
- Annualized IRR: ~7% / year
The TIKR model’s mid-case values JPMorgan at around $440 by December 31, 2030, a total return of around 31%, or about 7% a year. Its mid-case inputs, set over a 2025 to 2035 forecast window, assume revenue growth of around 4% a year, net margins near 31% and a gently shrinking P/E. At about 13x NTM earnings, JPMorgan trades above Bank of America and Citigroup at about 10x each, per TIKR, a premium backed by third-quarter return on tangible common equity of 20%, above its 17% through-the-cycle goal. Upside needs deposits and card loans to keep growing as rates rise; downside comes if agents or rate-seeking lift funding costs faster than loan yields.
Conclusion
Fourth-quarter results, expected in January, are the next test. NII excluding markets at or above the roughly $25.5 billion guide, with consumer deposits still growing, would show the base holding. A shortfall alongside rising deposit costs would show September’s fear arriving.
So what is JPMorgan stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what JPMorgan could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Analyze JPMorgan on TIKR Free →
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
