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Key Takeaways
- Moderna shares fell 18% today after detailed Phase 3 results for the personalized melanoma vaccine it’s developing with Merck showed up online two days before they were due to be presented.
- The leaked results still look positive. But the stock had risen more than eightfold this year, so anything short of spectacular was going to hurt.
- The reported 42% cut in the risk of recurrence or death came in below the 49% from the smaller Phase 2b trial, and Moderna traded at 52x forward sales going into today.
- The full data at the ESMO Congress on Saturday is the next test.
Moderna (MRNA) sank 18% today after detailed Phase 3 results for intismeran autogene, the personalized melanoma vaccine it’s developing with Merck (MRK), showed up online two days early.
The data appeared on the medical news site Oncology Central around 12:30 p.m. ET and was taken down shortly afterward. Moderna’s shares were halted for volatility minutes later.
The data still looks like a win
According to the report that was briefly online:
- Adding intismeran to Merck’s Keytruda cut the risk of melanoma coming back, or death, by 42% compared with Keytruda alone.
- After two years, 82.2% of patients on the combination were alive and cancer-free, against 70% on Keytruda alone.
- The trial enrolled 1,137 patients.
That’s a clear benefit for patients. So why the selloff?
Good wasn’t good enough
Moderna and Merck said in August that the trial had met its main goals, so investors already knew it worked. The open question was how well. The leaked 42% comes in below the 49% reduction the smaller Phase 2b trial showed after five years. (Those are different trials with different follow-up times, but it was the best number the market had.)
And the stock was priced for a blowout. It had risen more than eightfold in 2026 through Wednesday’s close, and an NIH plan for a COVID-style push on cancer vaccines added more fuel this month. Going into today, Moderna traded at about 52x forward sales, against a five-year average of 7.7x…
Even after today’s drop, it’s closer to 38x.
TIKR tracks 23 analysts on Moderna. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Moderna, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Moderna’s Analyst Ratings
The pipeline carries the valuation
The multiple is that high because Moderna’s sales have shrunk since its COVID heyday, and analysts don’t expect much of a rebound soon. Revenue fell from $6.85 billion in 2023 to $1.94 billion in 2025, and the consensus has it at only $3.40 billion in 2028…
So almost all of the stock’s value rests on intismeran and the cancer pipeline behind it, and any wobble in the data hits hard.
Saturday is the real test
The full INTerpath-001 results are set for ESMO’s Presidential Symposium on Saturday, which TIKR called the real test for the stock back in September. A statement from Moderna or Merck on the leak could come sooner.
My take: the vaccine looks like it works, and the stock is falling back to earth after being priced for perfection. I’d still hold off on buying the dip. Even now, Moderna trades at about five times its usual sales multiple, so Saturday’s full data needs to beat what leaked to justify that price.
Of course, the full presentation could add things the leak didn’t, like the distant-metastasis results the trial also hit, and that could change the picture.
So what is Moderna stock actually worth?
TIKR lets you forecast the future price of any stock in less than a minute. Just enter a few assumptions into TIKR’s valuation model and see what Moderna could be worth. Start from Wall Street consensus estimates, or adjust the inputs to reflect your own view of the business. It’s free to use.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
