Key Stats for Oracle Stock
- Current Price: $129.13
- Target Price (Mid): ~$430
- Street Target: ~$237
- Potential Total Return: ~233%
- Annualized IRR: ~30% / year
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What Happened?
Oracle (ORCL) may be getting help from one of its biggest partners. On October 20, TD Cowen analyst Michael Elias wrote that his industry checks suggest Nvidia (NVDA) may be providing credit support for some of Oracle’s data center leases, according to TipRanks. Oracle closed at $129.13 on October 21, down 34% in 2026, even after cloud infrastructure revenue grew 121% last quarter.
What TD Cowen’s Checks Show
Elias outlined two possible structures: Nvidia guaranteeing Oracle’s lease payments, or leasing facilities itself and subleasing them to Oracle. It is a channel check, not a disclosed agreement, and neither company has confirmed it. TD Cowen said it could partly explain Oracle’s recent Southeast Asia leasing for a reported Tencent (TCEHY) deal.
The relationship already runs both ways. Oracle named Nvidia among its largest cloud infrastructure customers in a February 2026 filing. Shares rose 1.20% to $131.14 on October 20, a day that also brought a BNP Paribas demand survey and an AstraZeneca partnership, then fell 1.53% on October 21.
A Funding Route Magouyrk Described in September
Outside funding is not new for Oracle. CFO Hilary Maxson said the vast majority of the first quarter’s new contracts used prepayments, bring-your-own-hardware or a similar mechanic.
Co-CEO Clay Magouyrk described the supplier version on the September 10 call: “Sometimes it’s working with our suppliers through different financing arrangements that allow us to pay for the capacity as the customers pay us.” The contracts still need capital spending, he said, just not “additional cash from Oracle.”
That distinction shows in the quarter:
- Gross CapEx: $28.5 billion in the three months ended August 31, per TIKR.
- Net cash CapEx: $18 billion after prepayments, per Maxson.
- Full-year cap: $70 billion net, against $90 billion to $95 billion gross.
All of it sits on top of $132.1 billion of net debt.
TIKR tracks 43 analysts on Oracle. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Oracle, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Oracle’s Analyst Ratings
The Date Maxson Held Back
Asked when free cash flow turns positive, Maxson said: “We haven’t given a particular time frame on that yet, and we don’t expect to give that today.”
She argued that ramped projects deliver free cash flow conversion of “something like 100% to posttax EBITDA.” On gross margin, she said: “Over the next couple of years, as we finish the ramp-up, you can reasonably expect that gross margin would flatten, I would say.” She added that Oracle had not given particular guidance on it.
First-quarter free cash flow was negative $5.4 billion despite record operating cash flow of $23.1 billion.
Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported on October 20 that, among banks that disclosed figures in California filings, liens covered 87 million Oracle shares co-founder Larry Ellison pledged for personal loans, up from about 30 million a year earlier. That is a subset: Oracle’s proxy puts his total pledged shares at 413 million, up from 346 million a year before. The amount borrowed was not disclosed. Oracle has said none of the pledged stock sits in margin accounts, and that its board believes he can repay without it.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $129.13
- Target Price (Mid): ~$430
- Potential Total Return: ~233%
- Annualized IRR: ~30% / year
The mid case is the model’s central scenario, valuing Oracle at around $430 by May 31, 2031, from the October 21 close. The card does not list its 2031 inputs, so for context:
- Backlog: Maxson expects about half of remaining performance obligations to convert to revenue within 36 months.
- Revenue: consensus rises from $67.4 billion in fiscal 2026 to around $261 billion in fiscal 2031, though only five analysts estimate that far out.
- Margins: whether gross margin flattens as Maxson suggested.
The primary risk is that TD Cowen’s checks prove wrong or the support stays small, leaving Oracle to fund leases on its own BBB- credit. Confirmed supplier financing is the upside. More equity issuance, after a $20 billion at-the-market sale completed in the first quarter, is the downside.
Conclusion
Management said Investor Day comes in October, the month of Oracle’s AI World conference, October 25 to 28. The deciding detail is a named fiscal year for positive free cash flow, set against the fiscal 2029 turn in TIKR consensus, plus any disclosure of supplier-backed leases. Without them, fiscal second-quarter results, expected December 14, are the next checkpoint.
So what is Oracle stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
