Key Stats for JCI Stock
- Past-30-Day Performance: 26%
- 52-Week Range: $68 to $145
- Valuation Model Target Price: $166
- Implied Upside: 15%
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What Happened?
Johnson Controls International plc stock rose about 26% in the last 30 days, finishing near $144 per share and approaching its 52 week high of $145.
Shares moved sharply higher after stronger than expected fiscal Q1 2026 earnings and raised full year guidance signaled accelerating demand in data center cooling and life sciences, along with improving operating leverage and margin expansion.
The company reported orders up nearly 40% on top of a 16% prior year comparison, revenue up 6%, and adjusted EPS up nearly 40% to $0.89.
Adjusted EBIT margin expanded 190 basis points to 12.4%, backlog increased 20% to a record $18 billion, and management raised full year adjusted EPS guidance to approximately $4.70, representing about 25% growth.
CEO Joakim Weidemanis said the company delivered “record orders,” underscoring strength in mission critical markets.
Regional order growth reinforced the momentum. Orders in the Americas rose 56%, EMEA increased 8%, and APAC climbed 10%, supported by hyperscale data center buildouts and pharmaceutical manufacturing projects.
Organic service revenue grew 9%, and management highlighted improved on time delivery and expanded production capacity, strengthening execution in large scale contracts.
Institutional activity remained active. Vanguard trimmed its stake by 0.1% but still holds 69,272,565 shares, representing about 10.59% of the company and valued near $7.62 billion.
PNC Financial reduced its position by 14.9% to 349,480 shares worth about $38.4 million. M&G PLC cut its stake by 10.8% to 2,634,843 shares valued at roughly $289.8 million.
ING Groep NV reduced its holdings by 65.5%, while Aberdeen Group plc increased its position by 11.8% to 1,029,982 shares valued at approximately $112.6 million.
Institutional investors own about 90% of the stock, indicating continued heavy professional ownership despite selective portfolio adjustments.
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Is JCI Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 6.2%
- Operating Margins: 16.3%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 25x
Revenue is projected to rise from $23,596 million in fiscal 2025 to $32,626 million by fiscal 2030, reflecting steady mid single digit growth supported by electrification initiatives, energy efficiency upgrades, and expanding AI driven data center infrastructure.
Revenue is expected to reach approximately $25,148 million in 2026, supported by backlog conversion.
Margin expansion remains central to the outlook. Adjusted EBIT margin reached 12.4% in Q1, and management guided to roughly 50% operating leverage for the full year.
Higher service mix, which grew 9% organically, combined with productivity initiatives, supports further earnings leverage even if revenue growth remains mid single digit.
Johnson Controls’ positioning across chillers, air handling units, CDUs, and building management systems strengthens its exposure to evolving thermal architectures in AI infrastructure.
Demand from life sciences and advanced manufacturing facilities adds diversification beyond traditional commercial construction.
Based on these inputs, the valuation model estimates a target price of $165.82, which rounds to $166, implying about 15% additional upside.
Even after rising 26% in the last 30 days, the stock appears modestly undervalued heading into 2026, with future performance dependent on backlog execution, sustained margin expansion, and continued mission critical infrastructure demand.
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