Key Takeaways for Intuit Stock as of June 2026
- Analysts rate Intuit stock 21 Buys / 6 Outperforms / 6 Holds / 1 Sell with a street mean target of $491, implying 84% upside from the current price of $267.
- TIKR’s mid-case model values Intuit at $444 by July 2030, implying 66% total return from current levels, or 13% annualized.
- Intuit stock has fallen 67% from its 52-week high of $814 while fiscal Q3 EBITDA reached $4.73 billion on a 55% margin, a business-level result that has no relationship to the AI disruption narrative driving the selloff.
- The $8 billion share buyback authorization and a 17% workforce reduction flowing primarily to the bottom line signal management’s belief that the selloff is a mispricing, not a rerate.
Intuit Stock Posts 55% EBITDA Margins as the Market Prices It Like a Broken Business
Intuit Inc. (INTU) reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $8.56 billion, up 10% year over year, following its May 20, 2026 earnings call, with adjusted EPS of $12.80, beating the Street’s $12.57 estimate by 2%.
The selloff in Intuit stock has disconnected from the operating results by a margin that is difficult to explain.
Three of Intuit’s growth engines — TurboTax Live, the money portfolio, and mid-market via Intuit Enterprise Suite — each grew north of 30% in Q3 fiscal 2026.
TurboTax Live customers grew 38%, revenue grew 36%, and the offering now represents 53% of total TurboTax revenue, up 11 points year over year — a meaningful structural shift inside the franchise that the stock price does not reflect.
QuickBooks Online Accounting revenue grew 22%, driven by higher effective prices, customer growth, and mix shift, while total online payment volume grew 30% including Bill Pay in Q3 fiscal 2026.
Global Business Solutions revenue reached $3.3 billion, up 15%, and Online Ecosystem revenue grew 19%, accelerating to 22% when Mailchimp is excluded.
The part that broke in Q3 was narrow and specific: price-sensitive DIY TurboTax filers earning less than $50,000 per year defected on price, and total IRS filings declined roughly 30 basis points below macro expectations — an industry-wide contraction representing roughly 2 million fewer returns than forecast.
CEO Sasan Goodarzi addressed the mechanism directly on the Q3 earnings call: “Customers buy confidence, not code, which is why they spend at least 7x more on accounting and tax experts than on software alone.”
The workforce reduction of 17% — nearly 3,000 roles globally — targets management layers, coordination-heavy roles, and duplication created by the TurboTax-Credit Karma integration, with CFO Sandeep Aujla confirming that the majority of cost savings flow to the bottom line rather than reinvestment.
Intuit now expects fiscal 2026 full-year revenue of $21.34 billion to $21.37 billion, up 13% to 14%, with adjusted EPS guidance of $23.80 to $23.85, well above the prior consensus of $23.21. Q4 revenue growth guidance of 11% to 12% came in line with analyst expectations and management’s stated commitment to delivering mid-teens EPS growth annually going forward.
INTU Holds 27 Buy Ratings While the Stock Trades 67% Below Its 52-Week High
Following Q3 fiscal 2026 results, 27 of 34 analysts covering Intuit stock rate it a Buy or Outperform, with a street mean target of $491, implying 84% upside from the current price of $267.
Quarterly EBITDA reached $4.73 billion in Q3 fiscal 2026, beating the Street’s $4.66 billion estimate, with EBITDA margins of 55%, above the prior year’s 57% primarily due to Q3 seasonality compression as Intuit’s March quarter carries peak tax-season revenue concentration.
Intuit stock’s FCF reached $5.24 billion for the Q3 period, 15% above the $4.57 billion estimate, with FCF margins of 61%, a cash generation profile the current stock price does not credit.
The analyst split following May earnings reflects a concrete disagreement about competitive positioning: the buy camp sees TurboTax Live’s 38% customer growth and QuickBooks Enterprise Suite’s 37% quarter-over-quarter contract increase as structural proof points that the platform is gaining share in high-TAM segments, while the hold camp — and the lone sell from Goldman Sachs — argue that the DIY segment model change introduces execution uncertainty and that near-medium term growth targets may need to reset downward.
Intuit Stock Generates More EBITDA in One Quarter Than ADP Does in Three
Intuit stock’s Q3 fiscal 2026 EBITDA of $4.73 billion exceeded ADP’s $1.89 billion for the same period by 2.5x, despite both companies serving overlapping small and mid-market business payroll and financial management customers.
Workday’s (WDAY) Q3 EBITDA of $840 million was less than one-fifth of Intuit’s print, and forward estimates show the gap widening, with Intuit projected to reach $5.29 billion in EBITDA by the April 2027 quarter against Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) $2.07 billion and Workday’s $950 million.
The competitive read matters for valuation: a business generating $4.73 billion in quarterly EBITDA at 55% margins, trading at a 67% discount to its 52-week high, sits at a wider gap to its own earnings power than either peer reflects in their current market pricing.
Is Intuit Stock Undervalued in 2026? TIKR’s $444 Mid-Case Says the Market Has It Wrong
TIKR’s mid-case values Intuit at $444 by July 2030, implying 66% total return from the current price of $267, or 13% annualized over 4.1 years.
Forward estimates project EBITDA growth of 29% in the July 2026 quarter and 20% in October 2026, as the workforce reduction removes cost faster than revenue decelerates.
The August platform launch — Goodarzi’s “sweeping expansion” of the AI-driven control tower with consumption-based pricing for AI agent services — is the catalyst TIKR’s mid-case needs to sustain 10% to 11% revenue growth through the forecast period.
Intuit stock reaches $444 if TurboTax Live holds its 53%-and-growing share of the franchise, Intuit Enterprise Suite keeps converting mid-market contracts at the pace it showed in Q3 fiscal 2026, and the $8 billion buyback reduces the share count while the stock trades at current levels.
Explore INTU’s forward EBITDA estimates and the full valuation model assumptions on TIKR for free →
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