Key Stats for Intuit Stock
- 30-Day Performance: -10%
- 52-Week Range: $389 to $814
- Valuation Model Target Price: $622
- Implied Upside: 56%
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What Happened?
Intuit stock fell about 10% in the last 30 days, recently trading near $399 per share as investors reacted to institutional trimming and broader multiple compression across large-cap software stocks.
Shares are now trading much closer to their 52 week low of $389 than their $814 high, reflecting a reset in valuation expectations rather than a collapse in fundamentals.
The stock declined as several major institutional investors significantly reduced their positions in Q3, signaling portfolio de-risking during a period of elevated valuations.
Public Sector Pension Investment Board cut its stake by 34%, CIBC World Market reduced its position by 69.7%, and ING Groep trimmed holdings by 56.5%.
While some firms increased exposure, including Varma Mutual Pension, institutional ownership remains high at roughly 83.66%, suggesting the selling pressure stemmed from selective profit-taking and rebalancing rather than a broad institutional exit.
At the Barclays Global Technology Conference this week, Consumer Group leader Mark Notarainni highlighted that Intuit reduced tax prep time by 12% last season and expects next year’s product to be 90% enabled by human intelligence tools.
The company also plans to open 600 service centers and about 20 retail locations after seeing a 5x engagement rate with experts.
Notarainni said, “AI is transformative for us in many ways,” underscoring the company’s continued push into assisted tax, business tax, and AI-powered financial assistants.
With shares down sharply in the last 30 days, the selloff appears driven more by valuation compression and institutional repositioning than by deteriorating business metrics.
The combination of AI integration, assisted tax expansion, and strong Credit Karma engagement has not changed, but investor sentiment has cooled.
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Is Intuit Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 12.6%
- Operating Margins: 41.3%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 18x
Revenue growth expectations reflect continued QuickBooks Online subscriber expansion, rising payments penetration, payroll attach rates, and ecosystem monetization across small businesses.
Intuit increasingly drives higher revenue per customer rather than relying purely on new user growth, supporting durable earnings expansion.
Expansion in assisted tax and business tax increases exposure to the $37 billion assisted tax market. AI-driven personalization shortens prep time, improves onboarding, and may lift conversion rates and retention during tax season.
Margin expansion is supported by automation across TurboTax and QuickBooks, where AI tools reduce manual workflows and improve operating leverage.
Credit Karma’s 43 million monthly active users and roughly 70,000 data points per member create daily engagement opportunities and cross-platform monetization.
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $622, implying 55.7% total upside and 19.7% annualized returns.
At current levels, Intuit appears undervalued if double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion persist, with future performance driven by AI adoption, assisted tax growth, and deeper ecosystem monetization.
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