Key Takeaways
- Intel stock is up 120.8% since early January and closed at $86.96 on October 23. Most of that gain came in April, when a first-quarter beat drove a 23.60% one-day jump.
- The mean Street target of $117.14 sits 34.7% above the close.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS of $1.53 this year, up from $0.42 in 2025.
- Intel reports on October 29, with third-quarter revenue guided between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion.
Intel (INTC) stock is up 120.8% since early January, closing at $86.96 on October 23. Most of that climb came in April, when a first-quarter beat handed the stock its biggest one-day gain in nearly four decades.
The six months since have been a fight to keep it. Intel stock peaked just above $140 in late June. It then gave back ground on a capital spending hike, a $20 billion share sale and two chip selloffs in October. Wall Street’s mean target, meanwhile, hasn’t moved down at all.
April Turned Intel Stock Into a Different Trade
Intel ended the first quarter at $44.13, after briefly climbing above $54 in January. The first jolt came on April 1, when Intel agreed to buy back the 49% stake in its Ireland fab joint venture from Apollo Global Management (APO) for $14.2 billion. The stock jumped 9% that day.
Three weeks later, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk said on Tesla’s April 22 call that he planned to use Intel’s 14A process for Terafab, the chipmaking project tied to Tesla and SpaceX (SPCX).
Then came the numbers. Intel’s first-quarter report on April 23 showed revenue of $13.58 billion against the $12.42 billion analysts expected, a 9.3% beat by my math. Adjusted EPS came in at $0.29 against $0.01. Intel stock rose 23.60% on April 24, its best day in nearly four decades.
Why Intel Stock Couldn’t Hold $140
The run carried Intel stock past $140 by late June. July undid a lot of it. On July 7, the stock fell $11.81 to $110.39 in a chip-sector selloff that had little to do with Intel’s own business, a 9.7% drop by my math.
The July 23 report should have helped. Revenue hit $16.13 billion against a $14.42 billion consensus, and adjusted EPS of $0.42 doubled the $0.21 estimate. Intel guided third-quarter revenue to between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion. In the second-quarter release, CFO David Zinsner said Intel delivered “a strong second quarter, exceeding our financial guidance on robust demand and improved execution.”
He also raised 2026 capital spending to $20 billion from $18 billion and said in an interview that spending would be “up meaningfully” in 2027. Intel stock fell 7.89% to $92.32 the next day.
Then Intel asked the market to help pay for the build. On August 10, it launched its first public share sale since listing in 1971. A day later it priced 210,526,315 shares at $95 to raise $20 billion, up from the $15 billion it first announced. By the end of August, the stock was back in the mid-$80s.
TIKR Tracks 54 Analysts on Intel. How Many Say “Buy”?
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Intel Stock’s September Bounce Didn’t Stick
September flipped the chart again. Intel stock gained 34.3% in the month and closed September at $120. The biggest day was September 21, when it jumped 12.1% to $121.78. That day Meta Platforms (META)’s new Muse AI agent app set off a rally in CPU makers, which Bloomberg tied to bets that AI agents need more general-purpose processors.
October has taken most of that back. On October 8, Intel stock closed at $107.08, down 5.34%, in a chip selloff tied to a Financial Times report questioning OpenAI’s revenue. On October 22, Intel was among the chipmakers that fell more than 8% after quarterly reports from Meta and Lam Research (LRCX). Reuters said those reports ignited fresh fears about AI spending. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% that day.
At its October 23 close of $86.96, Intel stock was 18.8% below its October 8 close by my math, and below the $95 that buyers in the August offering paid.
The Street Hasn’t Followed Intel Stock Down
The mean price target is $117.14, 34.7% above the October 23 close by my math and just under its three-year high of $118.05. At its three-year low in mid-2025, the mean sat at $21.29, so analysts have raised it more than five times over. The gap opened because the stock fell while targets held.
Earnings estimates explain the patience. Analysts expect normalized EPS of $1.53 this year, up from $0.42 in 2025, then $2.11 in 2027 and $3.09 in 2028. At $86.96, Intel stock trades at 56.8x this year’s estimate and 28.1x the 2028 figure, by my math. That’s still a growth multiple, and it depends on the 2028 numbers arriving on time.
What Intel Stock Needs From October 29
Intel reports third-quarter results after the close on October 29, in what Reuters called the busiest week of earnings season. Intel guided revenue to between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion and adjusted EPS to $0.38. A result near the top of that range keeps this year’s $1.53 estimate in reach.
The number I’d watch more closely is the 2027 capital spending plan. Zinsner has already said it will be “up meaningfully.” After a $20 billion share sale, a big figure with no new customer revenue attached would raise the same concern that sat behind the July 24 drop. A spending plan that leaves the $3.09 estimate for 2028 intact gives the $117.14 mean something to stand on.
So What Is Intel Stock Actually Worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
