Key Stats for Intel Stock
- Current Price: $116.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$460
- Street Target: ~$116
- Potential Total Return: ~296%
- Annualized IRR: ~38% / year
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What Happened?
Intel Corporation (INTC) fell 5.67% to $116.03 on September 28, 2026, as chip stocks led a tech-sector decline and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. Traders also weighed OpenAI’s pause on training, evaluation, and inference with tool use for its most capable models. Intel had run from about $89 on September 1 to $123 on September 25, and AMD (AMD) also fell as traders took profits.
The pause is temporary and says nothing about Intel’s own orders. NVIDIA (NVDA) rose 1.68% on its own news, an AI safety platform launch, and a larger buyback. For Intel, the bigger variable sits in its investor relations materials: the Intel Foundry operating loss.
Foundry Breakeven Could Slip to Late 2028
Intel Foundry posted a 2025 operating loss of $10.318 billion, narrower than $13.291 billion in 2024, per TIKR’s segment data. That loss is more than three times Intel’s total 2025 EBIT of $2.916 billion.
At Deutsche Bank’s technology conference on August 26, EVP and CFO David Zinsner said foundry has been “running at like a $2.5 billion loss or so per quarter,” with an internal breakeven target for the end of 2027. Then he hedged: “I could see us going into ’28 and not being there yet, and maybe it’s the end of ’28 even that we get there.” He tied any delay to start-up costs from winning more customers.
That timeline is priced in. Intel trades at 69x NTM normalized P/E, and consensus normalized EPS only reaches around $3 by 2028, per TIKR. Most of the value sits in the years a foundry slip would push back.
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Intel’s 50% Margin Goal Has No Date Attached
Zinsner said Intel is “comfortably in the 40s in gross margin, low 40s,” with a goal of “something that starts with a 5,” but he stopped short of dating it. His reason is mix: foundry and advanced packaging “are probably 40% gross margin businesses, at least for now,” and many custom ASIC products sit near 40% as well. Intel’s trailing-twelve-month gross margin is 38.9% on TIKR’s reported basis.
So Intel grades each unit on a “Rule of 45,” revenue growth plus operating margin. Zinsner expects advanced packaging to reach “40% gross, 30% operating margin” economics and “multiple billion dollars per customer per year,” with revenue ramping in the back half of 2027. At a 30% operating margin, that unit needs about 15% growth to clear 45.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $116.03
- Target Price (Mid): ~$460
- Potential Total Return: ~296%
- Annualized IRR: ~38% / year
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TIKR’s mid case, the model’s base scenario, points to around $460 by December 31, 2030, a 38% annualized IRR from $116.03. It is a scenario built on three inputs, not a forecast: around 19% annual revenue growth, a net margin near 33%, and a P/E that shrinks only about 3% a year.
That puts it far above the Street’s mean target of around $116 and its high of $200. Ratings split 14 Buy, 1 Outperform, 32 Hold, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell, with 4 no opinion.
Foundry breakeven by the end of 2027 is the upside path. An end-2028 breakeven paired with a lower multiple is the downside, and the mid case does not price it.
Conclusion
Intel is expected to report third-quarter results on October 22, after the close. The line to watch is the foundry operating loss against Zinsner’s roughly $2.5 billion quarterly pace; he said he wants “relative steady improvement every quarter.” A narrower loss keeps end-2027 alive, while a flat or wider one makes end-2028 the working assumption for a stock at 69x forward earnings.
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Should You Invest in Intel?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Intel, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Intel alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
