Key Stats for Illumina Stock
- Price Change: -10.4%
- Current Price: ~$120
- Advanced Model Target: $184
Now Live: Discover how much upside your favorite stocks could have using TIKR’s new Valuation Model (It’s free)>>>
What Happened?
Shares of Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) plunged 10.4% to close near $120 on Friday, caught in a wave of post-earnings volatility despite delivering a “beat and raise” quarter.
Sparking the selloff was investor anxiety over the pace of the broader genomics market recovery, even though Illumina reported revenue of $1.16 billion, comfortably beating the analyst consensus of $1.12 billion.
While the top-line numbers were strong, growing year-over-year, traders seemed fixated on the “transition friction” as customers swap out legacy sequencers for the new NovaSeq X series.
The drop brings Illumina’s valuation down to attractive levels for a company that effectively holds a monopoly on the high-end DNA sequencing market.
Analysts at Canaccord Genuity maintained their hold rating, noting that the “Clinical” segment is growing faster than the “Research” segment.
This disconnect between the fundamental progress and the stock price suggests a potential overreaction that could reverse as 2026 progresses.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Intuitive Machines stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Illumina Undervalued Today?
During the earnings call, CEO Jacob Thaysen highlighted the momentum in the business, stating: “I am pleased to announce that our Q4 results exceeded expectations, capped off with 20% growth in our clinical consumables revenue ex-China.”
He emphasized that this performance gives him “high confidence that the strategy we put in place in 2024 to return to long-term growth is working.”
Regarding the fleet transition, management noted that with the research transition nearing its end, they “expect the conversion to be substantially complete by the end of 2026.”
Looking ahead to profitability, Thaysen guided for continued expansion, noting: “Operating margins are expected to be 23.3% to 23.5% in 2026, up approximately 130 basis points excluding the acquisition impact.”
Read the full Illumina Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 Outlook >>>
According to TIKR’s Advanced Valuation Model, the selling pressure has created a massive margin of safety.
- Target Price: $184
- Current Price: ~$120
- Potential Upside: +53.7%
Valuation Deep Dive
The investment case for Illumina is a “Turnaround Play” centered on the adoption of its new technology cycle.
With the stock trading near $120, the market is pricing in zero growth, which contrasts sharply with the company’s guidance.
- The Moat: Illumina remains the “Intel of Genomics,” with a dominant market share in the machines that power virtually all modern genetic research.
- The Margin Recovery: The model projects Net Income Margins recovering to 20.5% over the next 5 years as the costs of the NovaSeq launch dissipate.
- The Upside: A return to the $184 target would simply mean the stock trades in line with its historical multiples, rather than the distressed valuation it holds today.
If Illumina can continue to beat revenue estimates while controlling costs, the “value gap” to $184 should close rapidly as sentiment shifts from fear to greed.
Conclusion: Genomic innovation on sale. With a 53.7% upside potential to $184, Illumina presents a high-conviction opportunity for investors willing to look past short-term volatility and bet on the long-term future of personalized medicine.
See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money with TIKR.
How Much Upside Does Illumina Stock Have From Here?
With TIKR’s new Valuation Model tool, you can estimate a stock’s potential share price in under a minute.
All it takes is three simple inputs:
- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
If you’re not sure what to enter, TIKR automatically fills in each input using analysts’ consensus estimates, giving you a quick, reliable starting point.
From there, TIKR calculates the potential share price and total returns under Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios so you can quickly see whether a stock looks undervalued or overvalued.
See a stock’s true value in under 60 seconds (Free with TIKR) >>>
Looking for New Opportunities?
- See what stocks billionaire investors are buying so you can follow the smart money.
- Analyze stocks in as little as 5 minutes with TIKR’s all-in-one, easy-to-use platform.
- The more rocks you overturn… the more opportunities you’ll uncover. Search 100K+ global stocks, global top investor holdings, and more with TIKR.
Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
