Key Stats for Public Service Enterprise Group Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -3.2%
- 52-Week Range: $74.7 to $91.3
- Current Price: $83.3
What Happened?
For the 21st consecutive year, Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated (PEG), the New Jersey utility and nuclear power operator, met or exceeded its own earnings guidance, and on February 26 raised its long-term EPS growth target to 6%–8% through 2030 from a prior 5%–7%.
On February 26, PSEG reported Q4 2025 non-GAAP operating EPS of $0.72, beating the LSEG consensus of $0.71, while initiating full-year 2026 non-GAAP operating EPS guidance of $4.28–$4.40, up 7% at the midpoint over 2025’s $4.05.
The structural engine behind the raised growth target is a $22.5 billion–$25.5 billion regulated capital spending plan through 2030, a $1.5 billion increase over the prior plan, driven by surging data center load growth and distribution reliability investment that supports a rate base CAGR of 6%–7.5% from a $36 billion year-end 2025 base.
CEO Ralph LaRossa stated on the Q4 2025 earnings call that “this higher growth rate is supported by our best-in-class utility operations executing on a customer-focused infrastructure modernization and energy efficiency investment programs,” tying directly to the February 2026 approval of GSMP III, a $1.4 billion gas system modernization program starting January 2026.
PSEG’s 5-year capital plan, executable without equity issuance or asset sales, combines regulated infrastructure investment with a nuclear fleet running at a 91.2% capacity factor in 2025, a 6% dividend increase to $2.68 annually, and potential upside from new New Jersey nuclear and gas procurement legislation introduced in early 2026.
Wall Street’s Take on PEG Stock
The 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding guidance, combined with a raised long-term growth target, transforms PSEG’s February 26 earnings report from a routine beat into a credibility-reinforcing rerating event.
PSEG’s EBIT margin, a measure of operating profit as a percentage of revenue that reflects how efficiently the regulated utility converts its rate base investment into earnings, expanded from 23.5% in 2024 to 24.5% in 2025 and is projected to reach 27.6% in 2026 and 29.6% in 2027.
That margin trajectory is anchored to hard capital: PSE&G’s rate base, the regulated asset base on which the utility earns a government-approved return, stood at $36 billion at year-end 2025 and is projected to grow at a 6%–7.5% CAGR through 2030 on $22.5 billion–$25.5 billion of committed regulated investment.
Wall Street is broadly constructive but not aggressive: 10 buys, 1 outperform, 9 holds, and 1 underperform across 17 analysts produce a mean price target of $89.97, implying just 8.0% upside from the current $83.27, suggesting the Street prices in steady execution but not a rerating.
The spread from $73.00 on the low end to $102.00 on the high end captures exactly the debate: bears anchor near the $73 floor if New Jersey’s energy procurement legislation stalls or nuclear capacity factors deteriorate, while bulls reaching $102 price in successful new generation contracting and incremental regulated capital above the base plan.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case target of $130.78 implies 57.1% total return at a 9.8% annualized IRR, a figure that stands in sharp contrast to Wall Street’s $89.97 mean target. The model prices in 5.7% revenue CAGR and EPS normalized growing from $4.05 in 2025 to $5.75 by 2030, justified by the locked-in capital plan.
The market prices PSEG as a slow-moving utility at 8% implied upside, but the EBIT margin expansion from 24.5% to a projected 30.0% by 2028 is not slow-moving.
PSEG’s Hope Creek nuclear unit completed its fuel cycle extension in Q4 2025, shifting from an 18-month to a 24-month refueling schedule and directly reducing future O&M costs while adding incremental megawatt hours.
Management confirmed the entire $22.5 billion–$25.5 billion capital plan executes without equity issuance or asset sales, a signal that EPS growth is not dependent on dilution.
The risk is New Jersey regulatory and legislative timing: if the gas and nuclear procurement bills introduced in early 2026 stall, the potential upside above the 6%–8% CAGR base disappears and the $130.78 TIKR target loses its key growth lever.
The number to watch is Q1 2026 non-GAAP operating EPS against the implied quarterly run rate of approximately $1.07–$1.10, which confirms whether the 7% full-year 2026 guidance increase is tracking as the new rate base investments begin flowing through earnings.
Should You Invest in Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up PEG stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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