Key Stats for Cummins Stock
- This Week Performance: +3.6%
- 52-Week Range: $260 to $618
- Current Price: $558.7
What Happened?
Cummins, a Columbus, Indiana engine and power equipment manufacturer, turned a cyclical trough in North American trucking into a showcase for portfolio resilience, with Power Systems delivering a record 22.7% EBITDA margin in FY2025 even as Class 8 truck volumes fell to their worst level in two decades.
Its Q4 earnings revealed revenue of $8.5B beating the $8.1B consensus by 4.6%, while six analyst firms raised price targets, with Truist moving to $703 from $653 and Morgan Stanley to $675 from $600, citing data center power demand and an early North America truck recovery.
Power Systems and Distribution, the two segments supplying diesel backup generators for data centers, both hit record FY2025 EBITDA, and total data center revenue reached approximately $3.5B, up roughly 35% from $2.6B in FY2024, with the company’s order book now extending into 2028.
CEO Jennifer Rumsey stated on the Q4 earnings call that “we’re taking orders now well into 2028; the demand remains very strong for diesel backup power,” directly reflecting the record Q4 order intake that followed Cummins completing a full doubling of its 95-liter engine capacity ahead of schedule.
With Power Systems guided to grow another 12% to 17% in revenue in 2026 at 23% to 24% EBITDA margins, three new HELM engine platforms set to launch under the EPA 2027 low-NOx rule carrying an estimated $10,000 to $15,000 per-truck content uplift, and the May 21 Analyst Day expected to raise long-term financial targets, Cummins enters its next chapter having already hit its 2030 margin ambitions four years early.
Wall Street’s Take on CMI Stock
The record 22.7% Power Systems EBITDA margin Cummins posted in FY2025 arrived during the worst North America truck cycle in 20 years, which directly confirms the business mix shift already described above is structural, not cyclical.
The TIKR projection shows adjusted EBITDA expanding from 17.4% in FY2025 to 20.8% by FY2030, driven by Power Systems scaling toward 23% to 24% segment margins while the truck cycle recovery adds volume leverage back into the Engine and Components businesses.
Twelve analysts rate CMI a buy or outperform versus 10 holds and one underperform, with the mean price target of $619.92 implying 11.0% upside from the current $558.71 close, anchored by the truck recovery and data center durability thesis already in motion.
The spread between the $490 bear target and $703 bull target hinges entirely on one variable: how quickly the North America heavy-duty truck market, which Cummins guides at 220,000 to 240,000 units in 2026, recovers toward replacement-level demand.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
The TIKR mid-case target of $712.71 implies 27.6% total return by December 2030, based on 7.0% revenue CAGR and 11.4% net income margins, both assumptions grounded in the Power Systems capacity expansion already completed and the 2028-extending order book management confirmed on the Q4 call.
The market prices CMI at roughly 21x forward earnings as a truck-cycle stock, yet Power Systems and Distribution together already deliver margins that peer generator manufacturers would recognize as infrastructure-quality profitability.
The $3.5B in FY2025 data center revenue, up 35% from $2.6B in FY2024, provides the concrete demand signal the TIKR model’s 7.0% mid-case revenue CAGR assumption requires to be credible.
Management’s confirmation of record Q4 order intake and active 2028 order sequencing signals that the Power Systems backlog, not analyst sentiment, is the real leading indicator for this stock.
A deterioration in hyperscaler data center CapEx commitments breaks the Power Systems growth assumption and removes the primary offset to any continued weakness in North America truck volumes.
The May 21 Analyst Day in New York City is the single event to watch, where management is expected to raise its 2030 financial targets and address capital allocation, including the prospect of share buybacks Cummins has not yet deployed at scale.
Should You Invest in Cummins Inc.?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up CMI stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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