Generac Rose 41% in the Last 30 Days. Here’s How Much the Stock Could Rise in 2026

Key Stats for GNRC Stock

• Past-30-Day Performance: 41%
• 52-Week Range: $100 to $236
• Valuation Model Target Price: $275
• Implied Upside: 20%

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What Happened?

Generac Holdings stock surged about 41% in the last 30 days, climbing to roughly $229 per share and nearing its $236 52 week high. The rally reflects a sharp reset in earnings expectations after management outlined stronger 2026 growth driven by accelerating data center demand.

The stock jumped as investors repriced forward earnings. Generac guided for mid-teens total net sales growth in 2026 and over 30% growth in C&I product sales, supported by a $400 million data center backlog. Adjusted EBITDA margins are expected to improve to 18% to 19% in 2026, up from 17% in 2025.

CEO Aaron Jagdfeld said, “We expect 2026 will be an inflection point for Generac in this end market,” reinforcing confidence in its expanding commercial exposure.

Analyst revisions added momentum. TD Cowen raised its price target to $255 from $220 and maintained a Buy rating, while Wells Fargo lifted its target to $234 and kept an Overweight rating.

Those increases validated the stronger outlook, even though the broader consensus target remains near $199.

Institutional positioning showed active capital flows. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund increased its stake by 45%, Principal Financial Group raised its position by 31%, and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking boosted its stake by 434%.

Envestnet Asset Management also added shares, lifting its holdings to nearly 598,000 shares. Despite reductions from Skylands Capital and Impax Asset Management, institutions still own about 84% of the stock, underscoring strong sponsorship during the rally.

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Is GNRC Undervalued?

Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth (CAGR): 12%
• Operating Margins: 15%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 21x

Revenue growth is expected to reaccelerate as data center demand expands and C&I mix strengthens.

Management’s guidance for over 30% C&I growth reflects accelerating shipments to hyperscale and co-location customers backed by a $400 million backlog, shifting earnings toward higher-margin commercial products.

Margin expansion is central to the thesis. Adjusted EBITDA margins are projected to rise to 18% to 19% in 2026 from 17% in 2025, while the model assumes a more conservative 15% operating margin.

As domestic large megawatt capacity exceeds $1 billion by Q4 2026, higher utilization should improve fixed cost absorption and support incremental earnings leverage.

Additional drivers reinforce the setup. Telecom infrastructure hardening, rental fleet recovery, and international C&I growth diversify revenue streams.

Residential penetration remains just 7%, with each additional 1% representing roughly a $4.5 billion market opportunity. Ecobee’s 5 million connected homes add recurring services revenue that strengthens earnings durability.

Based on these assumptions, the model estimates a target price of $275, implying about 20% upside from the current price near $229. With an estimated 7% annualized return, the stock qualifies as Undervalued under a framework where returns above 6% indicate attractive upside potential.

At current levels, Generac appears undervalued, with upside driven by commercial mix expansion, backlog conversion, and margin normalization rather than multiple expansion alone.

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