Key Takeaways
- Ford shares have fallen 30% from their May 29 closing high, and JPMorgan cut its price target to $16 from $17 on Oct. 12 while keeping its Overweight rating and 33% upside.
- JPMorgan expects a solid third quarter but a cautious first look at 2027, and it doesn’t think the results will do much for the stock.
- Analysts expect normalized EPS of $1.86 in 2026, back to 2024’s level, rising to $2.13 in 2028.
- The $16 target needs investors to pay 9x forward earnings, above Ford’s five-year average of 7.8x, so the call is plausible but stretched.
Ford Motor (F) shares have lost 30% since their May 29 closing high. But JPMorgan Chase (JPM), which trimmed its price target to $16 from $17 on Oct. 12, still sees 33% upside.
A rough few weeks for Detroit
On Oct. 1, Reuters reported experts expected the Detroit Three to lose U.S. share to Asian rivals, partly on soaring gasoline prices from the Iran war.
On Oct. 2, Ford said its third-quarter U.S. sales fell 6.6% as it phased out the Escape and the Lincoln Corsair.
JPMorgan expects a quiet quarter
Analyst Rajat Gupta kept his Overweight rating and expects third-quarter EBIT of $2.5 billion and EPS of $0.43, slightly ahead of the consensus at $2.4 billion and $0.41.
But he doesn’t expect the results to move the stock: investors will focus on 2027, where Ford’s first word will likely sound cautious.
Does $16 add up?
The consensus target has climbed from $11 a year ago to $16, while the stock closed at $12.17 on Oct. 9, barely above the $11.50 of a year earlier.
Even the lowest target, $12.80, is above today’s [$12.01] share price, and eight analysts now rate Ford Buy or Outperform, up from four a year ago.
Analysts expect normalized EPS to rebound from $1.09 in 2025 to $1.86 this year, back to 2024’s level, then reach $2.13 by 2028.
JPMorgan’s warning lands in the middle of that chart: a cautious 2027 outlook would put pressure on the $1.93 analysts expect for next year.
The harder part is the multiple. Ford trades at 6.9x forward earnings, below its five-year average of 7.8x.
JPMorgan’s $16 works out to 9x the $1.78 a share analysts expect over the next twelve months. That’s well short of the 12.8x peak in January 2022, but comfortably above where Ford usually trades.
The upside needs a re-rating
Gas prices are the risk. On the July call, CFO Sherry House said Ford’s guidance “does not include potential impacts of a significant escalation in the Middle East.”
I think JPMorgan’s call is plausible but stretched: $16 asks investors to pay more for Ford’s recovering earnings than they usually have.
The next test is Ford’s third-quarter report. If its first look at 2027 keeps the $1.93 estimate in place, $16 gets easier to reach.
So what is Ford stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
