Key Stats for Meta Stock
- Current Price: $742.96
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,206
- Street Target: ~$800
- Potential Total Return: ~62%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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What Happened?
Meta Platforms (META) closed up 3.38% at $742.96 on October 12 after launching Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, models the company calls its most capable yet, Reuters reported. The gain came on a day the Nasdaq fell. After the October 12 close, Meta announced it will report third-quarter results on October 21, with the release and call posted to its investor relations materials. The 31.9% climb since the June 30 close rests on a richer valuation rather than higher earnings estimates, which leaves the report little room to disappoint.
Investors Are Paying More for the Same Expected Earnings
TIKR data shows Meta’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio on next twelve months normalized earnings rose from 17.16x on June 30 to 23.10x on October 12. Over the same stretch, NTM normalized EPS slipped from $32.82 to $32.17. The stock closed 4.45% below its highest close of the past year.
The mean Street target has not followed the price. It fell from around $827 on June 30 to around $799, about 7.5% above the October 12 close. Ratings are slightly softer too: 47 Buys, 8 Outperforms, 7 Holds, and 1 Sell, against 49 Buys and no Sells on June 30. At 23.10x, Meta trades between Alphabet (GOOGL) at 25.16x and Reddit (RDDT) at 18.71x.
Muse adoption is the evidence that multiple lean on, and it is being contested. On October 9, Hunterbrook Capital disclosed a short position alongside a Hunterbrook Media report showing Muse downloads fell 8.1% week over week, based on third-party data. The Wall Street Journal also reported that global Muse downloads have slowed.
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October 21 Has to Show the Paid Products Gaining Traction
Revenue is the easier test. Analysts expect about $63.4 billion for the third quarter, above the midpoint of Meta’s $61 billion to $64 billion guidance. Profit is harder. The Street sees third-quarter EBIT falling about 7%, after second-quarter EBIT dropped 8.15%. Chief Financial Officer Susan Li said that excluding $2.4 billion in legal charges and $1.2 billion in severance, operating income would have risen 9%.
The line that speaks to the rally sits outside advertising. Family of Apps other revenue reached $1 billion in the second quarter, up 73%, driven mainly by WhatsApp paid messaging and subscriptions. The third quarter holds only about three weeks of Muse, which launched September 8, and Muse Wonder arrived after the quarter closed, so guidance matters more than the reported line. Access to Muse Wonder requires a paid monthly plan, CNBC reported. CEO Mark Zuckerberg told analysts on July 29 that Meta believes “there will continue to be a significantly higher margin on selling intelligence rather than selling compute directly.”
The costs are just as visible. On the same call, Li said Meta’s plans are “geared towards maximizing 2026 and 2027 capacity” and gave no 2027 capex figure. Street estimates already carry about $193 billion of 2027 capex and negative free cash flow in both 2026 and 2027. Legal exposure is open as well. Li warned that youth-related trials “may ultimately result in a material loss.” Separately, a judge is weighing New Mexico’s request for $35 billion to $40 billion in penalties after a September 25 jury verdict, with a ruling expected within weeks of the October 1 hearing, Bloomberg Law reported. Meta’s lawyers called the request unconstitutional.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $742.96
- Target Price (Mid): ~$1,206
- Potential Total Return: ~62%
- Annualized IRR: ~12% / year
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The TIKR model’s mid case puts Meta at around $1,206 by December 31, 2030, about 62% above the $742.96 close. For context, Street estimates show revenue rising from $200.966 billion in 2025 to around $472 billion in 2030. Normalized net margin was 38.0% in 2025 and is expected to be near 31% in 2026 and around 30% by 2030, as depreciation and amortization climb from $18.616 billion to around $102 billion. The main risk is capex outrunning that revenue path. The lowest Street target, $580, marks the most cautious analyst view.
Conclusion
The clearest signals are Meta’s fourth-quarter guidance, any early read on 2027 capex, and whether other revenue holds near its 73% pace. Capex commentary near the roughly $193 billion already in estimates, with paid products gaining, supports a 23x multiple. A capex outlook well above that, with other revenue slowing, would leave a re-rated stock without the earnings to back it.
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So what is Meta stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
