Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- This Week Performance: +2%
- 52-Week Range: $623.8 to $1,133,9
- Current Price: $1,0288
What Happened?
When Novo Nordisk’s CagriSema delivered only 23% body weight reduction against tirzepatide’s 25.5% in a head-to-head trial last Monday, it didn’t just hand Eli Lilly a win; it confirmed that LLY at $1,028.8 now sits as the undisputed architect of the obesity drug market’s next decade.
That competitive verdict arrived swiftly through Wall Street, with Berenberg raising its Lilly price target to $1,050 from $950 on February 19, while JP Morgan stated it expects Lilly to hold “a longer runway for share gains for Zepbound beyond 2026” as Novo’s pipeline credibility collapses.
Driving that conviction is Lilly’s Q4 2025 earnings engine, where full year revenue surged 45% to $65.2 billion, EPS exploded 86% to $24.21, and Zepbound captured nearly 70% of new branded obesity prescriptions while U.S. incretin analog total prescriptions grew 33% in the quarter.
Beyond the current numbers, the market is fundamentally re-rating Lilly from a pharmaceutical company into a consumer health platform, as LillyDirect crossed 1 million patients in 2025 and Zepbound self-pay vials now represent 1/3 of all new obesity medication starts across every brand.
David Ricks, Chair and CEO, stated on the Q4 earnings call that “we exceeded our goal to produce 1.8x the number of incretin doses in the second half of ’25 compared to the second half of ’24,” contextualizing a manufacturing buildout that has now committed over $55 billion since 2020 to support surging global demand.
Adding further institutional weight, Deutsche Bank stated the obesity and diabetes market is “likely to coalesce around Lilly’s portfolio,” a conclusion that lands even harder given Lilly’s six additional Phase III retatrutide readouts expected in 2026 and orforglipron’s pending FDA approval in Q2.
Looking further out, Lilly’s simultaneous dominance in injectables, imminent oral GLP-1 launch, and expanding incretin applications across immunology, neuroscience, and oncology position it to control not just the obesity market but the broader metabolic disease landscape for the next 3 to 5 years as Novo runs out of credible challengers.
Wall Street’s Take on LLY Stock
Novo’s CagriSema failure last Monday doesn’t just hand Lilly a near-term win; it removes the most credible competitive threat to Zepbound’s dominance precisely as Lilly prepares to launch orforglipron in Q2, unlocking a second major obesity revenue stream with no viable rival in sight.
Beneath that competitive victory, the fundamentals show a business in full acceleration, with fiscal 2025 revenue surging 44.7% to $65.2 billion, EPS exploding 86.4% to $24.21, and EBITDA margins expanding to 44.9%, with consensus forecasting revenue to reach $80.6 billion and EPS to climb a further 42.3% to $34.5 in fiscal 2026.
Wall Street stands at its most bullish posture in over a year, with 18 buys, 5 outperforms, and 6 holds against just 1 underperform as of February 25, producing a mean price target of $1,212.8 that implies 17.9% upside from the current $1,028.8 close, with analysts upgrading into the CagriSema news and orforglipron approval timing.
The spread between the analyst low of $870.0 and the high of $1,500.0 is too wide to ignore, with the bull case hinging on orforglipron achieving blockbuster scale and Medicare obesity access driving volume from July 1 onward, while the bear case reflects P/E compression risk as the model already prices in a -2.7% P/E CAGR in the mid case.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Given Lilly’s 44.7% one-year revenue CAGR, expanding net income margins forecast to reach 38.4% in 2026, and an unmatched obesity pipeline, TIKR’s valuation model prices LLY at a mid-case target of $1,995.2, implying a 93.9% total return over 4.8 years at a 14.6% annualized IRR.
The most consequential risk visible in the data is the low to mid-teens price drag embedded in Lilly’s own 2026 guidance, where the government Medicare access agreement, Medicaid reductions in states like California, and updated LillyDirect pricing collectively pressure realized revenue per unit even as volume continues to climb.
Altogether, LLY looks meaningfully undervalued relative to its earnings trajectory, with the orforglipron Q2 approval, July 1 Medicare access launch, and Novo’s collapsing pipeline credibility forming a rare convergence of tailwinds that makes the $1,212.8 mean analyst target look conservative rather than aggressive.
Should You Invest in Eli Lilly and Company?
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Pull up LLY stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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