Key Stats for Sempra Stock
- Past-6-Month Performance: 16%
- 52-Week Range: $62 to $96
- Valuation Model Target Price: $108
- Implied Upside: 15%
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What Happened?
Sempra stock shares have climbed about 16% over the last six months, recently trading near $95 per share, as investors positioned around improving regulatory visibility and strong institutional accumulation heading into 2026. The steady advance reflects growing confidence in the durability of its regulated earnings base.
The stock moved higher as large institutions significantly increased exposure while short sellers reduced positions, signaling strengthening sentiment around Sempra’s utility-driven cash flow profile.
JPMorgan Chase more than doubled its stake in Q3, increasing holdings by 106% to 10,428,007 shares valued at $938 million. Vanguard raised its ownership by 14% to 75,725,594 shares worth $6.81 billion, representing about 11.61% of the company.
ANTIPODES PARTNERS initiated a new 1,677,951 share position valued at $151 million, while Aberdeen Group boosted its stake by 46% to 927,758 shares worth $83 million.
Meanwhile, short interest fell 26.7% in January to 8,681,923 shares, reducing the days-to-cover ratio to 1.5 days and easing downside pressure.
On the regulatory front, Sempra’s majority owned affiliate Oncor filed an unopposed base rate settlement seeking approval for approximately $6.98 billion in annual revenue, representing an 8.8% increase over adjusted present revenues.
The proposal includes a 9.75% authorized return on equity and a 4.94% cost of debt, with new rates retroactive to January 1, 2026 if approved, strengthening earnings visibility for its Texas operations this year.
Sempra also confirmed it will report fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings on February 26, 2026, while SoCalGas stated it “serves over 21 million consumers across Southern California” as it addressed Eaton Fire litigation.
Together, institutional accumulation, falling short interest, and constructive rate case developments have supported the stock’s move higher as investors look toward stable growth in 2026.
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Is Sempra Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 2.8%
- Operating Margins: 24.6%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 19x
Revenue is projected to grow at a steady 2.8% annually as Sempra expands its regulated rate base through transmission upgrades, grid modernization, and LNG infrastructure, positioning the company to benefit from long-cycle electrification and rising energy demand.
Operating margins near 24.6% reflect normalization from the recent 18.2% level, supported by constructive regulatory frameworks and cost discipline, allowing earnings to grow modestly faster than revenue.
Capital investment in regulated utilities and LNG-linked infrastructure remains the core earnings driver over the next 12 months, particularly if Oncor’s rate case is approved as filed and new returns begin compounding into 2026 results.
Based on these assumptions, the model estimates a target price of $108, implying about 15% upside from current levels near $95, indicating the stock appears modestly undervalued.
At current levels, Sempra’s setup reflects a steady compounder profile, where regulated earnings durability and infrastructure investment support gradual but sustainable total return potential into 2027.
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