Key Stats for CGNX Stock
- Year-to-Date Performance: 48%
- 52-Week Range: $23 to $60
- Valuation Model Target Price: $70
- Implied Upside: 26%
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What Happened?
Cognex Corporation stock is up about 48% year to date, recently trading near $53 per share as investors price in a recovery in factory automation demand, improving semiconductor activity, and expanding AI-driven inspection opportunities.
The sharp move higher reflects renewed confidence that the company is emerging from a rare three-year down cycle and entering a new growth phase in 2026.
The rally has been supported by strengthening end-market commentary and clearer margin targets. This week at Citi’s Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference, CFO Dennis Fehr said Cognex reported 2025 revenue of $994 million with an adjusted baseline near $965 million after one-time items and portfolio changes.
He outlined an initial 2026 outlook calling for mid-single-digit to high-single-digit growth and plans to expand adjusted EBITDA margins from 21% exiting 2025 toward a 25% run rate by the end of 2026, supported by $35 million to $40 million in cost reductions and operating leverage, adding that Cognex is “a big beneficiary of AI.”
Institutional positioning has reinforced the advance. Vanguard increased its stake by 374,999 shares to 18,598,728 shares, representing 11% ownership valued at about $843 million after a 2% quarterly increase.
Thrivent Financial boosted its stake by 203% to 266,954 shares worth about $12 million, while Oppenheimer Asset Management raised its holdings by 13% to 318,984 shares valued at about $14 million. IMC Chicago initiated a new 127,168-share position worth about $6 million.
Not all positioning was accumulation. ProShare Advisors trimmed its stake by 13% to 205,133 shares, Y Intercept Hong Kong reduced its holdings by 90% to 6,290 shares, and AlphaQuest cut its stake by 66%.
Overall institutional ownership stands at 88%, indicating that despite selective trimming, large investors remain heavily invested as the automation cycle turns.
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Is CGNX Undervalued?
Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue Growth (CAGR): 9%
- Operating Margins: 24%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 37x
Revenue is projected to expand from about $1.5 billion in 2025 to nearly $3.0 billion by 2030, reflecting a semiconductor cycle recovery, continued logistics automation penetration, and broader adoption of AI-enabled machine vision systems across advanced manufacturing lines.
Margin expansion toward the mid-20% range depends on higher software content per system, improved factory utilization, and scaling benefits from cost actions already underway.
The planned $35 million to $40 million in cost reductions and operating discipline support the path toward a 25% EBITDA run rate exiting 2026.
The most important variable in the next 12 months is semiconductor capacity investment. Even modest acceleration in wafer fab spending can translate into meaningful earnings leverage given Cognex’s high incremental margins.
Packaging and logistics automation provide additional stability, while AI-enabled tools such as OneVision expand inspection complexity and increase content per application.
Based on these assumptions, the model estimates a target price of $70, implying about 26% upside from current levels, indicating the stock appears moderately undervalued.
At current levels near $53, Cognex’s performance in 2026 will likely hinge on semiconductor acceleration, sustained automation demand, and execution on margin expansion rather than aggressive revenue assumptions.
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How Much Upside Does Cognex Corporation Have From Here?
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- Revenue Growth
- Operating Margins
- Exit P/E Multiple
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