Key Stats for Burlington Stock
- Past-Week Performance: -2.1%
- 52-Week Range: $121.9 to $332.2
- Current Price: $308.6
What Happened?
Burlington stock (BURL) trades at $308.64 after JP Morgan raised its price target to $356, signaling that Wall Street’s most influential analysts now see meaningful upside in a retailer that absorbed tariff headwinds, expanded margins 60 basis points, and delivered 16% adjusted EPS growth all in the same quarter.
Specifically, JP Morgan drove the bullish sentiment shift on February 23 by lifting its BURL price target from $316 to $356, while Jefferies followed on February 25 by raising its target from $330 to $355, with both firms validating management’s ability to outperform despite a softer 1% comp in Q3.
Underneath those target hikes sits a financial engine built on disciplined tariff mitigation, as Burlington’s merchants negotiated with vendors, adjusted category mix, and forced faster inventory turns to protect merchandise margin while simultaneously driving 40 basis points of product sourcing leverage and 20 basis points of SG&A leverage on just a 1% comp.
Beyond the near-term numbers, the market is actively re-rating Burlington from a weather-sensitive off-price retailer into a structurally margin-expanding growth story, one that has already captured 170 of the 400 basis points of EBIT opportunity it identified two years ago while planning at least 110 net new store openings in the coming fiscal year.
Chief Executive Officer Michael O’Sullivan stated on the Q3 earnings call that “at the high end of our updated 2025 margin guidance, we will have achieved 170 basis points of the 400 basis points of opportunity that we identified 2 years ago,” underscoring that this margin expansion is happening despite meaningful tariff pressure that competitors have struggled to absorb as cleanly.
Adding further institutional conviction, JP Morgan raised its price target to $356 from $316 on February 23, reflecting confidence in Burlington’s new store pipeline which is now anchored by 45 leases secured from the Joann Fabrics bankruptcy, giving the retailer a cost-efficient runway into underserved markets heading into the next fiscal year.
Looking further out, Burlington’s commitment to opening at least 110 net new stores annually while targeting $1.6 billion in operating income by 2028 positions it to take sustained share from full-price retailers, a structural shift in consumer spending that CEO O’Sullivan himself framed as an off-price megatrend unlikely to reverse anytime soon.
Wall Street’s Take on BURL Stock
That bullish momentum carries directly into Burlington’s forward earnings picture, as JP Morgan’s target hike to $356 and the upcoming March 5 Q4 earnings release now serve as the twin forces most likely to define whether BURL breaks decisively above its current $308.6 price.
Burlington’s fundamentals actively support that optimism, with consensus estimates projecting FY2026 revenue of $11.5B representing 8.1% growth, EPS of $9.75 reflecting 19.4% year-over-year expansion, and EBITDA margins widening to 10.9%, confirming that the business is accelerating on every key profitability dimension.
Wall Street currently counts 11 Buys, 2 Outperforms, and 5 Holds against zero Sells, with the mean price target sitting at $351.5, implying roughly 13.9% upside from current levels, as analysts broadly hold conviction while waiting for Q4 results to confirm the margin expansion thesis they have been pricing in.
The spread between the Street’s low target of $280.0 and its high target of $430.0 is wide enough to matter, with the bear case hinging on tariff-driven margin compression and weak holiday comps while the bull case depends on Burlington delivering Q4 EPS above the $4.5 to $4.7 guidance range on March 5.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Given Burlington’s demonstrated ability to expand EBIT margins 60 basis points through active tariff mitigation and supply chain efficiency, TIKR’s mid-case valuation model prices BURL at $436.5, implying a 41.4% total return and a 9.2% annualized IRR through January 2030, a return profile that looks credible rather than stretched at current levels.
The most consequential risk remains multiple compression, as the model already projects P/E contraction at a negative 3.5% CAGR in the mid case, meaning Burlington must sustain 12.0% EPS growth annually just to offset the valuation headwind and deliver that 9.2% annualized return.
Altogether, BURL looks modestly undervalued at $308.6 with a credible path to $351.5 consensus and $436.5 intrinsic value, but the March 5 Q4 earnings call is the decisive test investors must watch before sizing up a full position.
Should You Invest in Burlington Stores, Inc.
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up BURL stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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