Key Stats for Oddity Tech Stock
- Earnings Reaction: -6.61%
- Current Price: $14.74
- Valuation Model Target: $17.69
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What Happened?
Oddity Tech (ODD) is facing an existential operational crisis, with shares trading near $14.74 after management shocked the market by suspending full-year 2026 guidance.
The beauty and wellness technology company delivered a strong 2025, reporting a 24% revenue increase in the fourth quarter and achieving a record full-year adjusted EBITDA of $163 million.
However, the company’s core user acquisition engine has completely derailed.
Management revealed that an unprecedented algorithm change by its largest advertising partner has diverted Oddity’s traffic to highly inefficient bidding auctions, causing customer acquisition costs (CPA) to more than double.
Because the company is no longer profitable on first-order purchases at these elevated ad costs, management expects first-quarter sales to plummet by approximately 30%.
CEO Oran Holtzman detailed exactly why this glitch is severely damaging the company’s short-term growth trajectory.
Holtzman stated verbatim: “This elevated acquisition cost is severely hurting our ability to acquire new users efficiently at high scale as we normally do in the first half of each year and have done consistently for the past 8 years very successfully.”
The company believes its unique “Try-Before-You-Buy” model, which carries inherently higher return rates, triggered the algorithm to artificially penalize their accounts.
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Oddity Tech stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Oddity Tech Undervalued Today?
The TIKR Model indicates that the market is severely discounting the stock due to the complete lack of visibility into when this advertising disruption will be resolved.
The model projects a highly cautious target price of $17.69, representing a modest 20.0% potential total return from current levels.
Despite the acquisition disaster, the underlying health of Oddity’s existing brand portfolio remains incredibly strong.
The company’s core IL MAKIAGE and SpoiledChild brands continue to generate massive repeat purchase volume. In 2025, approximately 70% of Oddity’s total revenue came directly from repeat sales.
Furthermore, the recent launch of its third brand, METHODIQ, a telehealth platform focused on dermatology, is exceeding internal expectations.
CFO Lindsay Drucker Mann explained exactly how the lack of new user acquisition in the first half will bleed into the remainder of the year.
Drucker Mann stated verbatim: “Q1 and Q2 are historically our largest periods of user acquisition. And from that acquisition, we typically generate significant repeat revenue over the balance of the year. The reduced user acquisition activity today will therefore result in lower repeat sales later in the year, even if acquisition costs normalize.”
Read the full Oddity Tech Transcript on TIKR to see the 2026 guidance breakdown >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model identifies Oddity Tech as a highly profitable disruptor that has temporarily lost control of its primary growth lever.
- Target Price: $17.69
- Current Price: $14.74
- Annualized Return (IRR): 3.8%
The Margin and Repeat Safety Net: While the top line is expected to contract sharply, Oddity’s structural profitability is exceptionally resilient. According to the TIKR Historical Breakdown, the company maintained an impressive 18.8% Net Income Margin over the last year. Because the company refuses to burn cash on unprofitable marketing, it is deliberately scaling back advertising spend to preserve capital. With over $776 million in cash and zero drawn debt on the balance sheet, the company has the liquidity to aggressively buy back its discounted stock while engineers attempt to fix the algorithm.
The ODDITY LABS Catalyst: Beyond traditional marketing, Oddity is transitioning into a true biotechnology developer. ODDITY LABS is currently utilizing AI agents and traditional biology to develop proprietary peptides and small molecules targeting acne and aging. The company expects to have eight proprietary products in the market by 2026. If the company can successfully reset its advertising funnel, this proprietary product pipeline will support a return to its long-term algorithm of 20% sustained growth.
Conclusion: A highly profitable beauty disruptor temporarily paralyzed by a massive digital advertising disruption. Oddity Tech offers a cautious 20.0% projected return potential. The path to the $17.69 target is completely dependent on management’s ability to repair the user acquisition algorithm and re-accelerate the core growth engine.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
