Axon Jumped 24% This Week. Here’s What’s Next for Shares in 2026

Key Stats for AXON Stock

• Past-Week Performance: 24%
• 52-Week Range: $396 to $886
• Valuation Model Target Price: $1,047
• Implied Upside: 90%

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What Happened?

Axon Enterprise stock surged about 24% this week, closing near $550 per share, as investors reacted to record fourth quarter results, sharply accelerating bookings, and raised 2026 guidance.

The move reflected a decisive repricing after management delivered stronger growth visibility and reinforced confidence in demand across state and local, international, corrections, and enterprise markets.

The stock jumped because Axon reported 39% revenue growth to $797 million and delivered $7.4 billion in annual bookings, up 46%, including Q4 bookings that surged more than 50%, signaling stronger forward revenue momentum.

Software and Services revenue rose 40% to $343 million, ARR grew 35% to over $1.3 billion, and adjusted EBITDA increased 46% to $206 million with a 25.9% margin.

Management guided 2026 revenue growth of 27% to 30%, its strongest outlook entering a year, which prompted investors to reassess near-term earnings potential.

CEO Rick Smith said the company is “firing on every cylinder,” highlighting confidence heading into 2026.

Institutional positioning reinforced the advance. NEOS Investment Management increased its stake by 82.7% to 25,369 shares, while Prakash Investment Advisors boosted its position by 128.3% to 5,250 shares. Vanguard also raised its holdings by 4.2% to more than 9.3 million shares, remaining one of Axon’s largest shareholders.

Although some firms trimmed exposure, including ProShare Advisors, Aberdeen Group, and TimesSquare Capital, overall institutional ownership remains elevated at roughly 79% of shares outstanding.

The combination of record bookings, raised 2026 guidance, accelerating recurring revenue, and sustained institutional ownership helped drive Axon’s sharp move higher this week.

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Is AXON Undervalued?

Under valuation assumptions, the stock is modeled using:

• Revenue Growth (CAGR): 29.6%
• Operating Margins: 9.0%
• Exit P/E Multiple: 70.7x

Revenue is projected to grow from about $2.8 billion in 2025 to more than $5.0 billion by 2028, supported by continued TASER 10 adoption, expansion of Body 4 deployments, accelerating AI Era Plan bookings, and growing international cloud penetration.

Bookings growth of 46% in 2025 provides forward revenue visibility, particularly as large multi-year contracts convert into recognized revenue over time.

The most important driver in 2026 is recurring software expansion. Software and Services grew 40% in Q4, and ARR surpassed $1.3 billion, reinforcing the shift toward higher-margin subscription revenue.

AI-enabled offerings, including Axon Assistant and the AI Era Plan, deepen customer integration and increase revenue per officer, strengthening lifetime customer value.

International growth and enterprise expansion represent incremental upside drivers. International bookings exceeded $1 billion for the first time, while enterprise adoption continues to broaden beyond core law enforcement, expanding Axon’s total addressable market.

Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $1,047, implying about 90% total upside over roughly 2.8 years.

At current levels, Axon appears undervalued if it sustains high bookings growth, converts backlog efficiently, and continues scaling software margins into 2026.

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