Key Stats for Canada Goose Stock
- This Week Performance: +0.3%
- 52-Week Range: CA$9.4 to CA$21.3
- Current Price: CA$17.1
What Happened?
Canada Goose‘s 14% Q3 revenue surge to CA$694.5 million, beating the CA$658.5 million consensus, confirms that its year-round brand pivot is generating real traction, even as the stock trades 19.7% below its 52-week high of CA$21.3.
The sharpest needle-mover remains the February 5 adjusted EPS miss of CA$1.4 against estimates of CA$1.7, triggering a 19.4% selldown, compounded by Bragar Eagel and Squire’s securities law investigation opened February 25.
Beneath the miss, CA$24 million of the CA$66 million SG&A expansion came from non-recurring items, a CA$15 million bad debt provision and a CA$9 million non-repeating FX gain, meaning the underlying cost overage was far more contained than the selldown implied.
The market’s mental model of GOOS is shifting from a seasonal parka maker toward a year-round luxury brand, supported by four consecutive quarters of positive DTC comparable sales growth and Greater China revenue climbing 13.1% to CA$248.3 million.
CEO Dani Reiss stated on the Q3 earnings call that “margins this quarter reflected deliberate choices we made to expand product relevance and fuel brand momentum,” framing the 450 basis point adjusted EBIT margin contraction to 29.3% as transitory.
Wall Street’s median 12-month target of CA$22.0 implies 21.5% upside from the February 4 close of CA$18.1, with 4 of 9 analysts maintaining buy-equivalent ratings despite the selloff, anchoring conviction in the fiscal 2027 margin recovery roadmap.
Looking out 3 to 5 years, Canada Goose’s accelerating traction in Mainland China, where the brand commands approximately 32% of total revenue and continues to outperform on Douyin and Tmall, positions GOOS as one of the few Western luxury apparel brands with genuine digital and cultural penetration in the world’s most contested premium consumer market, a competitive moat that could meaningfully re-rate the stock’s long-term multiple if fiscal 2027 margin recovery validates management’s strategic thesis.
Wall Street’s Take on GOOS Stock
Canada Goose’s 14% Q3 revenue beat and fourth consecutive quarter of positive DTC comparable sales growth confirm that its year-round brand expansion is translating into durable forward earnings momentum, not just seasonal noise.
Yet the Street’s forward estimates reflect genuine compression ahead, with FY26 revenue growth projected at 9.9% while normalized EPS contracts 28.9% to CA$0.80, making fiscal 2027 margin recovery the single most critical execution test for the bull case.
Wall Street currently shows 3 buys, 4 holds, and 4 sells against a mean price target of CA$16.8, implying roughly 1.5% downside from CA$17.1, suggesting analysts are holding conviction cautiously rather than upgrading into the brand’s emerging momentum.
The analyst target range spanning CA$12.0 on the low end to CA$23.0 on the high end reflects a binary setup where fiscal 2027 margin expansion confirmation drives the upside while continued SG&A deleverage and guidance absence anchor the bearish scenario.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Given management’s credible three-step margin recovery roadmap and Greater China’s 13.1% revenue growth, the mid-case valuation model prices GOOS at CA$29.3, implying a 71.8% total return and a 14.1% annualized IRR through March 2031.
The most consequential near-term risk remains EBITDA margin compressing to 18.3% in FY26 from 22.4% historically, a deterioration that could force further multiple contraction on a stock already trading at 16x forward earnings without reinstated annual guidance.
GOOS sits in wait-and-see territory at CA$17.1, where fiscal 2027 operating margin expansion confirmation and guidance reinstatement represent the two specific triggers that would meaningfully close the gap to the CA$29.3 mid-case model target.
Should You Invest in Canada Goose Holdings Inc.?
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