Key Stats for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +0.5%
- 52-Week Range: $196 to $333.9
- Current Price: $313.4
What Happened?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings (HLT) has broken past its previous mental ceiling, with shares trading at $315.4 after the company delivered record adjusted EBITDA of $3.7 billion in 2025, proving that its capital-light, fee-driven model generates compounding returns even when U.S. RevPAR softens.
Eight Wall Street firms simultaneously raised their price targets on February 12 following the Q4 earnings beat, with Argus Research leading the charge by lifting its target to $380 from $350, while Wells Fargo moved to $373 and JP Morgan pushed to $350, collectively signaling broad institutional conviction.
Specifically, Hilton’s adjusted EPS of $2.08 crushed the $2.02 consensus estimate while total Q4 revenue of $3.1 billion surpassed the $3.0 billion forecast, powered by Middle East and Africa RevPAR surging 15.9% and management and franchise fees growing 7.4% year-over-year.
Beyond the earnings beat, the market is actively re-rating Hilton from a cyclical lodging operator into a tech-adjacent, platform-driven compounder, as JP Morgan specifically noted that Hilton’s physical, experiential business model is uniquely positioned to capture AI-driven distribution efficiencies and booking personalization at scale.
President and CEO Christopher Nassetta stated on the Q4 earnings call that “we expanded our portfolio of brands, grew our pipeline to a new record and strengthened our nearly quarter billion member loyalty system with new partnerships and loyalty tiers,” framing the record 520,000-room pipeline and approaching 250-million-member Honors program as structural growth engines well beyond 2026.
Meanwhile, Lone Pine Capital reported a new 57,817-share stake in Hilton as of December 31, reinforcing institutional accumulation even as Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman exited his position on February 11 to fund a roughly $2.0 billion Meta bet.
Looking ahead, Hilton’s pipeline of 520,000-plus rooms, accelerating global construction starts projected up over 20%, and its expanding luxury footprint across Waldorf Astoria, Conrad, and LXR position the company to dominate premium hospitality supply for the next 3 to 5 years as AI, the FIFA World Cup, and middle-class wage recovery converge into a powerful demand supercycle.
Wall Street’s Take on HLT Stock
Hilton’s record $3.7 billion adjusted EBITDA in 2025, combined with a 520,000-room pipeline and accelerating global construction starts, directly supports the Street’s expectation that revenue grows 8.6% to $13.1 billion in 2026 while EBITDA expands to $4.0 billion.
The fundamental engine remains intact as normalized EPS climbs from $8.1 in 2025 to an estimated $9.0 in 2026, representing 11.2% growth, while EBITDA margins hold remarkably steady near 30.8%, confirming that Hilton’s capital-light model converts revenue gains into earnings with minimal friction.
Wall Street currently shows 9 buys, 4 outperforms, 12 holds, and 1 sell among 25 analysts, with the mean price target sitting at $328.3, implying roughly 4.8% upside from the February 25 close of $313.4, suggesting analysts are upgrading into strength rather than chasing a momentum trade.
The spread between the $250.0 low target and $383.0 high target is substantial, where the bear case hinges on U.S. RevPAR staying negative amid softening budget travel and foreign visitor declines, while the bull case materializes if the FIFA World Cup, middle-class wage recovery, and AI-driven distribution gains accelerate group and leisure demand beyond the 1% to 2% guidance range.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Given Hilton’s consistent EBITDA margin expansion, record pipeline, and accelerating construction starts, the mid-case valuation model prices HLT at $417.7, implying a total return of 33.3% and an annualized IRR of 6.1% through December 31, 2030, making the return profile credible but not explosive at current prices.
The most consequential risk remains multiple compression, as the stock trades at 2.8x price-to-NAV per share versus 2.2x just 14 months ago, meaning any disappointment in the 2026 RevPAR trajectory or World Cup demand underwhelm could trigger a swift re-rating lower without fundamental cover.
Overall, Hilton looks fairly valued at $313.4 with a modest lean toward upside, as the fundamental compounding story is intact, but investors should watch Q2 RevPAR data and World Cup booking trends closely before expecting the stock to decisively breach its $333.9 52-week high.
Should You Invest in Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.?
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