Key Stats for Domino’s Pizza Stock
- Price Change: +3.46%
- Current Price: $414.20
- Valuation Model Target: $699.13
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What Happened?
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) is tightening its grip on the global Quick Service Restaurant space, trading near $414.20 as it relentlessly captures market share.
The pizza delivery giant delivered a masterful 2025 performance that severely outpaced the broader restaurant industry.
While the overall pizza category grew at a sluggish 1% to 2% historical rate, Domino’s posted full year global retail sales growth of 5.4%.
More impressively, the company drove this growth entirely through increased traffic and order counts rather than relying on price hikes.
Pricing in the fourth quarter was entirely flat, proving that the brand commands immense consumer loyalty in a highly promotional macroeconomic environment.
This traffic-driven outperformance is directly resulting in mass closures for rival pizza chains.
As national competitors announce negative same-store sales and shutter up to 250 locations, Domino’s is stepping in to aggressively capture their abandoned customers.
This structural market consolidation led the Board of Directors to announce a massive 15% increase to the quarterly dividend.
CEO Russell Weiner laid out a highly aggressive vision for the company’s future market dominance.
Weiner stated verbatim: “I believe that Domino’s can double our retail sales from where they are today, double.”
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Domino’s Pizza stock (It’s free!) >>>
Is Domino’s Pizza Undervalued Today?
The TIKR Model indicates that Wall Street is severely underestimating the compounding financial effects of this rapid market consolidation.
The model projects a massive target price of $699.13, representing a 68.8% potential total return from current levels.
While the broader restaurant sector faces crushing margin pressure from wage inflation and rising food costs, Domino’s franchisee economics have never been stronger.
Estimated average U.S. franchisee store profitability climbed to a record $166,000 in 2025.
This operational leverage is fundamentally transforming the company’s corporate profitability profile.
According to the TIKR Historical Breakdown, Domino’s Net Income Margin has structurally expanded to 12.4%, up massively from its 10-year historical average of 8.6%.
The company is utilizing this fortress balance sheet to invest heavily in enterprise technology and aggregator partnerships.
By fully integrating with platforms like DoorDash and Uber Eats, Domino’s is tapping into entirely new customer demographics while maintaining absolute control over the final delivery economics.
CEO Russell Weiner explained exactly why this operational efficiency completely separates the brand from its struggling peers.
Weiner stated verbatim: “We have profit power. We can offer value to consumers and still create profit gains for our franchisees.”
Read the full Domino’s Pizza Transcript on TIKR to see the revenue breakdown >>>
Valuation Deep Dive
The TIKR Advanced Valuation Model identifies Domino’s as an apex predator in the restaurant space capable of growing earnings consistently through market share capture.
- Target Price: $699.13
- Current Price: $414.20
- Annualized Return (IRR): 11.4%
The Carryout Engine: While historically known for delivery, Domino’s has successfully built an entirely secondary multibillion-dollar revenue stream. The U.S. carryout business ended 2025 at $4.4 billion and has averaged 10% annual growth over the last 15 years. This segment is highly lucrative because carryout orders bypass the labor costs associated with traditional delivery, directly expanding store-level profitability.
Capital Returns and Operating Leverage: Domino’s operates a highly efficient franchise model that generates massive free cash flow. Management is actively funneling this cash back to shareholders through a newly authorized 15% dividend hike and ongoing stock repurchases, with $460 million still remaining on the current authorization. By systematically returning capital while taking market share from distressed competitors, Domino’s provides a highly resilient growth profile.
Conclusion: A dominant Quick Service Restaurant operator is systematically destroying its competition. Domino’s Pizza offers a massive 68.8% projected total return potential. The path to the $699.13 target is paved by record franchisee profitability, aggressive market share capture, and a highly lucrative carryout business.
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How Much Upside Does Domino’s Pizza Stock Have From Here?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
