Key Stats for PACCAR Stock
- Past-Week Performance: +1.2%
- 52-Week Range: $85 to $132
- Current Price: $126
What Happened?
PACCAR (PCAR) is proving that a 43% GAAP net income decline can actually strengthen a bull case, with shares at $126.25 holding 49.1% above their 52-week low as the market focuses on adjusted profits of $2.6 billion and a structurally superior manufacturing position over every import-dependent competitor.
Specifically, the February 10 Analyst Day drove the latest sentiment shift, as CEO Preston Feight and his executive team presented cycle-over-cycle profit data showing net income per truck nearly doubling from $9,500 to $18,000, reframing the 2025 trough as a launchpad rather than a deterioration.
Powering that reframe is PACCAR’s Section 232 tariff advantage, which shifted medium-duty production from Canada and Mexico into U.S. plants at Chillicothe and Denton, delivering more than 50% relief on total tariff exposure while competitors still face unresolved pricing uncertainty on imported trucks.
Consequently, the market is actively re-rating PACCAR from a cyclical truck manufacturer into a structurally compounding industrial, anchored by Parts and Financial Services now representing 71% of total profit and providing a higher earnings floor at every point in the business cycle.
Chief Executive Officer Preston Feight stated on the Q4 earnings call that “we ended last year with tariff and emissions clarity,” directly contextualizing why order intake accelerated sharply through December and January as fleet customers regained the confidence to commit capital.
Adding institutional weight, Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich pressed management on cycle-over-cycle margin expansion at both the Q4 call and the February 10 Analyst Day, signaling that top-tier sell-side firms are actively building the case for PACCAR as a premium industrial compounder rather than a commodity cycle trade.
Looking further ahead, PACCAR’s $70 billion parts addressable market, autonomous vehicle platform partnership with Aurora, and local-for-local manufacturing advantage collectively position the company to deliver higher profit per truck at every future cycle peak through at least 2030.
Wall Street’s Take on PCAR Stock
The Section 232 tariff advantage, local-for-local manufacturing shift, and EPA27 prebuy setup revealed at the February 10 Analyst Day collectively point toward accelerating revenue and margin expansion through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
Analysts forecast revenue rebounding to $27.6 billion in 2026, a 5.2% increase, while normalized EPS climbs to $5.6, extending a 5-year EPS CAGR of 15.0% that underscores PACCAR’s structural earnings power across full business cycles.
Wall Street currently backs that recovery with 6 buys, 1 outperform, and 14 holds, while the mean price target of $124.8 sits just 1.2% below the current price of $126.3, signaling the stock has largely caught up to near-term consensus expectations.
The target range tells a more divided story, however, stretching from a bear-case low of $92.0 to a bull-case high of $150.0, meaning conviction varies sharply and the upside case demands execution on the EPA27 prebuy cycle and Parts growth acceleration.
What Does the Valuation Model Say?
Accounting for PACCAR’s doubled net income per truck, $70 billion parts opportunity, and Section 232 manufacturing advantage, TIKR’s mid-case valuation model prices PCAR at $147.9, implying a 17.1% total return over 4.8 years at a modest 3.3% annualized IRR.
The primary risk is P/E multiple compression, with the model projecting a 7.9% annual P/E contraction through 2030, meaning earnings growth alone must carry returns as the valuation re-rating that drove the stock from its 52-week low already appears largely priced in.
With shares trading just 1.2% above the analyst mean target and a valuation model pointing to only 3.3% annualized returns, PACCAR looks fairly valued today, making it a compelling long-term hold rather than a high-conviction buy at current levels.
Should You Invest in PACCAR Inc?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up PCAR stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track PACCAR Inc alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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