Key Stats for Eli Lilly Stock
- 52-Week Range: $623.78 – $1,249.45
- Current Price: $1,115.68
- Street Target Price: ~$1,277
- NTM P/E: ~31x
- YTD Return: +3.3%
- Dividend Yield: 0.6%
- Market Cap: ~$995B
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Another 46% Revenue Quarter, Another Guidance Raise
Eli Lilly (LLY) has been one of the most remarkable growth stories in large-cap pharmaceuticals for three consecutive years. The engine behind it is the incretin franchise: Mounjaro, a GLP-1 and GIP receptor agonist approved for type 2 diabetes, and Zepbound, the same molecule approved for obesity and sleep apnea.
GLP-1 drugs work by mimicking hormones that regulate blood sugar and appetite, producing significant weight loss alongside meaningful metabolic benefits. What began as a diabetes treatment has become the fastest-growing drug category in the history of the pharmaceutical industry.
Q2 2026 extended the streak, with revenue at $22.97 billion, up 46% year over year, putting Lilly on pace to generate around $85 billion for the full year. Operating income reached $8.58 billion in the quarter, up 31%.
Non-GAAP EPS of $8.38 came in well ahead of consensus, and full-year guidance was raised again. The six-month revenue figure of $42.77 billion, up 51% from the prior year, shows the growth rate has remained consistent even as the absolute dollar amounts grow larger.
One number from Q2 deserves attention. Lilly recorded $2.78 billion in acquired in-process research and development charges, primarily related to the acquisitions of Aktis Oncology and Centessa Pharmaceuticals. These represent Lilly deploying capital to build the pipeline that comes after peak GLP-1 growth, and the revenue chart shows why that investment matters.
Consensus estimates show revenue climbing from $65 billion in 2025 toward $85 billion in 2026, then moderating to $99 billion in 2027 and $133 billion by 2030. The implied growth rate decelerates from 46% today toward roughly 12% by the decade’s end.
Whether that reflects a realistic maturation of the GLP-1 market or an underestimate of the obesity drug opportunity is the central analytical debate for anyone trying to value Lilly today.
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Spending Aggressively and Still Generating $9 Billion in Free Cash Flow
One of the more underappreciated aspects of Lilly’s current position is that the company is funding an enormous capital buildout and still generating substantial free cash flow. Manufacturing GLP-1 drugs at scale requires purpose-built facilities that take years to construct, and Lilly has been spending heavily on both organic capex and acquired pipeline assets throughout this growth phase.
FCF was $6.1 billion in 2021 and $5.7 billion in 2022 before collapsing to $792 million in 2023 as manufacturing investment peaked. It recovered sharply to $3.8 billion in 2024 and $9.0 billion in 2025.
Generating $9 billion in annual free cash flow while simultaneously spending $2.78 billion on pipeline acquisitions in a single quarter and running one of the largest capital programs in the pharmaceutical industry is a meaningful sign of business quality.
The pipeline investments behind that spending are worth understanding. Aktis Oncology brings targeted radiopharmaceutical therapy into Lilly’s oncology portfolio, a treatment approach that uses radioactive molecules to deliver radiation directly to cancer cells, sparing surrounding tissue.
Centessa adds clinical-stage assets across multiple disease areas. Neither is a GLP-1 hedge; both represent Lilly’s attempt to build the business that follows the current franchise.
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What the Valuation Model Says About Eli Lilly Stock
The TIKR valuation model mid-case target comes out to around $2,140, representing a potential total return of roughly 92% at around 16% annualized over 4.4 years.
The model assumes revenue growing at around 12% annually, net income margins expanding to roughly 43%, and EPS compounding at around 15% per year. Multiple compression of about 1.6% per year is baked in, meaning returns are driven by earnings growth rather than re-rating.
At roughly 31 times forward earnings, Lilly is not cheap by any traditional measure. The Street consensus target of around $1,277 implies roughly 14% upside from current levels.
The high case in the model reaches around $3,884 at roughly 16% annualized, though that requires the obesity market to develop faster than the current consensus and pipeline assets to deliver meaningful revenue before GLP-1 growth slows materially.
Should You Buy Eli Lilly Stock?
Lilly’s Q2 results confirmed what six prior quarters established: this is a business executing at an exceptionally high level, generating real cash, and investing it intelligently into the next growth phase.
The risks are specific: competitive pressure from Novo Nordisk’s pipeline, pricing pressure from pharmacy benefit managers reconsidering GLP-1 coverage, and uncertainty around whether acquired pipeline assets ultimately deliver.
At $1,115 and approaching a $1 trillion market cap, Lilly is priced for continued execution, leaving little room for a meaningful miss.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
