Key Stats for Hims & Hers Stock
- Current Price: $30.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$117
- Street Target: ~$29
- Potential Total Return: ~280%
- Annualized IRR: ~35% / year
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What Happened?
Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) closed at $30.82 on August 3, up 10.98% in a single session, and the timing is what makes the move worth studying. Five days earlier, the stock had dropped after the Federal Trade Commission, joined by Utah and by California through the Los Angeles County Counsel, sued the company over how it allegedly handled customer health data and subscription billing. By Monday’s close, shares had climbed back above where they traded the day before that lawsuit landed.
That recovery is not a clean all-clear. Shares still finished the lawsuit week slightly lower, and Monday’s pop came with earnings six days out, so some of it reflects pre-report positioning rather than a pure verdict on the FTC. Still, the setup leaves a real disagreement into the August 10 print. One side sees a growth story strong enough to absorb a federal lawsuit. The other sees a rich multiple with regulatory and margin questions unanswered.
What the FTC Alleged, and Why the Business Kept Accelerating
The FTC filed its complaint on July 29 in the Northern District of California. It alleges the company shared sensitive health information with advertising platforms, including Meta and Snap, through website trackers, and that it charged customers before they consulted a provider, while making subscriptions hard to cancel. These are allegations, not findings. Hims & Hers called the suit “baseless,” said it disregards evidence from a nearly three-year investigation, and vowed to defend itself. A court will decide the case, and no penalty or remedy has been set.
Investors appear to be treating the suit as headline risk rather than a thesis-breaker, and the investor relations materials from the Q1 call show why. The pivot away from compounded GLP-1 drugs toward branded products is driving the reacceleration. After discontinuing compounded weight-loss advertising in March, the company added Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy to the platform and is, per CFO Yemi Okupe, “on track to add north of 100,000 new subscribers per month” in weight loss.
What matters for the margin debate is the economics underneath that ramp. Asked how a branded customer compares to a legacy compounded one, Okupe said “on a dollar basis, the two are roughly comparable.” That reframes the pivot: the company traded a supply chain it controlled for a partner relationship, but not, on its own math, for materially worse unit economics.
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Real Growth, Real Margin Compression
The tension sits between a reaccelerating top line and a near-term profit profile going the wrong way. First-quarter revenue grew just 4% to $608 million, held back by revenue-recognition timing and a tough comparison against last year’s record weight-loss additions. Management guided Q2 revenue to $680 million to $700 million, or 25% to 28% growth, and raised the full-year outlook to $2.8 billion to $3 billion. The reacceleration is already in the guide.
The cost is the margin. Adjusted EBITDA fell to $44 million, a 7% margin, after roughly $33 million in restructuring charges tied to the pivot, and the quarter swung to a GAAP net loss. Okupe warned gross margins would compress “a couple of points” as lower-margin weight loss, labs, and international scale faster than the older specialties. Free cash flow stayed healthy at $53 million, which is what funds the transition. International adds a second engine: Hims closed its Eucalyptus acquisition on June 2, entering Japan, and international revenue climbed nearly tenfold year over year to $78 million. CEO Andrew Dudum reiterated 2030 targets of at least $6.5 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA, which are long-range goals built on assumptions, not commitments.
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $30.82
- Target Price (Mid): ~$117
- Potential Total Return: ~280%
- Annualized IRR: ~35% / year
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The TIKR mid-case model, realized by the end of 2030, points to a target of around $117. Two revenue drivers carry it:
- Branded GLP-1 ramp with Novo Nordisk pushing weight loss toward 100,000-plus new subscribers a month
- International expansion through the newly closed Eucalyptus platform
The margin driver is the recovery management expects once scale lets it pass efficiency gains through, targeting a net income margin around 5% in the mid case. The primary risk is that same margin path stalling, whether from the FTC remedy, GLP-1 pricing, or churn as subscription fees step up. Upside: branded weight loss and international both compound while margins recover, and the stock rerates toward the target. Downside: regulatory overhang and compression persist, leaving the stock nearer the Street’s ~$29 view.
Conclusion
August 10 is the number that matters. Hims reports Q2 after the close, and management has told investors what good looks like: revenue of $680 million to $700 million and evidence the branded weight-loss ramp is producing the subscriber additions Okupe promised. A print at the top of that range, with the 100,000-per-month pace holding, would validate buying through the FTC noise. A subscriber miss, or gross margin compressing faster than the guided “couple of points,” hands the bears their case and puts the ~$29 Street target back in focus. The market has already voted with a double-digit rally off the lawsuit low. The report shows whether that vote was right.
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Should You Invest in Hims & Hers?
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Pull up Hims & Hers, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
