Key Takeaways for Palantir Stock as of August 2026
- Commercial Acceleration: Palantir’s (PLTR) U.S. commercial revenue jumped 149% YoY and 28% sequentially to $764M, pulling total Q2 revenue up 93% YoY to $1.935B.
- Largest-Ever Guidance Raise: Management lifted full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.15B-$8.158B, up 82% YoY, and raised U.S. commercial revenue guidance to above $3.424B for at least 134% growth.
- Retention Spike: Net dollar retention hit 157%, up 700 basis points sequentially, while U.S. commercial TCV bookings of $2.132B grew 153% YoY and came in nearly $800M above the prior record quarter.
- Karp’s Growth Pledge: CEO Alex Karp committed to growing the whole company “at a rate equal or above” U.S. commercial’s pace for the next 18 months.
Bookings are compounding faster than revenue, and management just told investors that pace holds for another year and a half. See the full valuation model on TIKR for free →
Palantir Stock Rides a 149% U.S. Commercial Surge Into Its Biggest-Ever Guidance Raise
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) posted its highest-ever year-over-year revenue growth rate in the second quarter of 2026, with total revenue climbing 93% to $1.935 billion. The U.S. business drove nearly all of it, growing 115% year-over-year to $1.573 billion and now making up over 81% of total revenue. Inside that number sits the real story: U.S. commercial revenue accelerated to 149% year-over-year growth, up from an already elevated base, while U.S. government revenue grew 90% year-over-year to $809 million.
Bookings tell an even sharper version of the same trend. Palantir closed $2.132 billion in U.S. commercial total contract value during the quarter, up 153% year-over-year and nearly $800 million above its prior record. Net dollar retention reached 157%, a 700 basis point jump from the prior quarter, and total remaining deal value climbed to $13.1 billion, up 83% year-over-year. Management closed 220 deals worth $1 million or more, including 73 deals above $10 million, all record highs.
Profitability kept pace with growth rather than trading against it. Adjusted free cash flow hit $1.22 billion, a 63% margin and 115% year-over-year growth, while the combined score of revenue growth and adjusted operating margin, what the company calls its Rule of 40 score, reached 155%, its twelfth straight quarter of expansion. That combination of accelerating bookings and expanding margin gave management the confidence to raise full-year 2026 revenue guidance to between $8.15 billion and $8.158 billion, an 82% growth rate and an 11-point increase over the prior quarter’s guide, the company’s largest-ever guidance raise. U.S. commercial revenue guidance rose alongside it, to above $3.424 billion for at least 134% growth.
CEO Alex Karp framed that guidance raise as a floor, not a ceiling, telling investors on the Q2 earnings call: “I am driving the business to grow at a rate equal or above to what we have in U.S. commercial for the next 18 months, which is a very high goal, but it is one we can actually get to.” That target sets a demanding bar against a base that already tripled its bookings pace in a single quarter. Whether Palantir clears it will decide how much of this quarter’s acceleration proves durable rather than a single standout print.
Palantir stock investors got a second data point worth weighing alongside the growth numbers: management raised its cloud hosting commitment for one government customer, pushing adjusted gross margin down to 86% for the quarter even as adjusted operating margin held at 62%. That trade, taking on more infrastructure cost now for faster deployment later, mirrors the broader bet embedded in this quarter’s results.
That combination of a record bookings quarter and a raised full-year guide gives investors a fresh data point on durability. Check the updated Palantir estimates on TIKR for free →
TIKR Values Palantir Stock at $881, Pricing In a 55% Annualized Return
TIKR’s mid-case model values Palantir stock at $881 by December 2030, implying 601% total return from the current price of $126, or 55% annualized over 4.4 years.
That combination of return magnitude and multi-year holding period places Palantir stock among the more aggressive growth valuations in the TIKR model set, reflecting a business still compounding bookings faster than revenue rather than one settling into a mature growth rate.
The model’s mid-case scenario assumes revenue growth in the 53% range and net income margin near 47% across the forecast window, both of which sit close to what Palantir already delivered this quarter on a trailing basis.
Given that U.S. commercial revenue is already growing at 149% and full-year guidance now points to 82% total growth, the underlying trajectory this quarter demonstrated supports the growth assumptions baked into TIKR’s target rather than requiring a future acceleration that hasn’t yet shown up in the numbers.
Q2’s guidance raise, the largest in company history, adds a second full-year data point confirming the model’s near-term growth assumptions. Compare the return profile against TIKR’s full model for free →
Should You Invest in Palantir Technologies Inc.?
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Pull up Palantir Technologies Inc. stock and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
