Key Stats for e.l.f. Beauty Stock
- Past week’s performance: -3.1%
- 52-week range: $58 to $151
- Valuation model target price: $96
- Implied upside: 44.9% over 1.9 years
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What Happened?
e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) stock slipped this week as investors continued to weigh strong sales growth against tariff pressure. The company delivered 38% net sales growth in fiscal Q3 and raised its full-year outlook. But the stock remains well below its 52-week high because investors are focused on margins and demand durability.
The key concern is cost pressure. Reuters reported that e.l.f. expected more than $50 million in annual costs from higher U.S. import tariffs in fiscal 2026. The company also said China accounted for about 75% of global production as of November.
e.l.f. has already taken pricing action. ELF implemented a $1 global portfolio-wide price increase in August 2025. Still, 75% of its products remained priced at $10 or less, so investors are watching whether its value positioning can keep demand strong.
The Rhode acquisition is another major part of the story. e.l.f. agreed to buy Hailey Bieber’s Rhode for about $1 billion, giving it exposure to a fast-growing prestige beauty brand. That could expand e.l.f.’s growth runway, but investors want proof that the deal can support margins and growth going forward.
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Is ELF Stock Undervalued?
Under valuation model assumptions realized through 12/31/28, the stock is modeled using:
- Revenue growth (CAGR): 16.1%
- Operating Margins: 16.8%
- Exit P/E Multiple: 20.7x
Based on these inputs, the model estimates a target price of $96, implying 44.9% total upside from the current share price and a 21.1% annualized return over the next 1.9 years.
That return profile looks attractive because the stock has reset sharply from prior highs. e.l.f. trades around 20.7x next-twelve-month earnings, while its 5-year historical P/E is 40.7x. The lower multiple suggests investors are now pricing in slower growth and tariff risk.
The business still has strong brand economics. LTM revenue is $1.52 billion, gross margin is 70.3%, and EBIT margin is 11.5%. That high gross margin gives e.l.f. room to invest in marketing, product launches, and retail expansion.
The balance sheet is more leveraged after recent acquisitions. LTM net debt is about $729 million, and net debt to EBITDA is 3.22x. That makes cash generation more important because the company needs to fund growth while managing debt.
What’s Driving ELF Stock Going Forward?
The next catalyst is Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings, expected on May 22. Investors will focus on revenue growth, gross margin, and fiscal 2027 guidance. Those numbers will show whether price increases and tariff costs are changing the growth story.
Tariffs remain the biggest near-term risk. If import costs stay elevated, e.l.f. may need more pricing, supplier shifts, or cost savings. Each option has trade-offs, as higher prices can undermine the brand’s value appeal.
Rhode integration is the next major growth driver. Rhode generated about $212 million in sales for the year ended March 31 before the deal. Reuters reported the brand planned to expand into Sephora in the U.S., Canada, and the U.K., which could broaden distribution.
Retail and e-commerce execution will also matter. e.l.f. said Q3 growth came from retailer and e-commerce channels in the U.S. and internationally. If those channels keep gaining share, the stock could recover, but investors need margin improvement going forward.
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Should You Invest in e.l.f. Beauty?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up ELF, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track ELF alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
