Key Stats for Credo Technology Stock
- Current Price: $213.15
- Target Price (Mid): ~$670
- Street Target: ~$280
- Potential Total Return: ~213%
- Annualized IRR: ~27% / year
- Max Drawdown: 53.59% (March 30, 2026)
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What Happened?
Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO) closed at $213.15 on July 24, down 9.87% in one session and 29.54% below its June 22 closing high of $302.52. That is a full re-rating in five weeks.
The forward numbers tell a different story. Between June 30 and July 24, as the stock lost another 21.6%, next-twelve-month revenue, EBIT, earnings, and levered free cash flow estimates all finished slightly higher than where they started.
A 30% Drawdown the Estimates Did Not Follow
Direction came from the sector. Per CNBC’s market coverage, the S&P 500 closed July 24 up 0.05% at 7,411.98 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.64%, with chip names leading the weakness. Credo runs a five-year beta of 3.23, so it amplifies sector moves. Magnitude was its own.
The compression is visible in one line. Forward P/E fell from around 44x on June 30 to around 35x on July 24, and forward enterprise value to revenue from around 20x to around 16x, on estimates that did not decline. Forward EBITDA consensus held at roughly $1.3 billion on both dates.
The sell side did not turn either. Barclays raised its price target to $300 from $260 on July 20 and Susquehanna moved to $250 from $235 the following day, both while the stock was falling. Estimates and targets are pointing one way and the tape another, which is the disagreement worth resolving.
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What Brennan Said About the 3-Nanometer Crunch
The fear behind July’s semiconductor selloff is that AI capital spending stalls. At the Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference on June 4, management addressed a supply-side version of the question instead.
Chief Executive Officer Bill Brennan said every 200-gigabit-per-lane, 1.6-terabit solution he is aware of is built on 3-nanometer silicon, because power consumption rules out the older node. He expects that to cap 200-gigabit-per-lane deployments if buyers are not thoughtful about it. For Credo, he said, “I feel comfortable that we’ve underpinned through ’27 based on our growth trajectory,” reasoning that connectivity chips are small next to GPUs and switches, and that shorting them would stall whole cluster deployments.
He also described a path around the tight node. Server sleds commonly carry two physical ports, so operators can reach 1.6 terabits by populating each with eight 100-gigabit lanes instead of moving to 200-gigabit lanes. These are management’s expectations rather than committed capacity, and no wafer allocations were disclosed.
Where Credo Sits Against Named Chip Peers
On forward earnings, Credo’s roughly 35x sits between Analog Devices at around 27x and Marvell Technology at around 43x, below Advanced Micro Devices at around 59x and above Nvidia at around 21x. On forward revenue, the ranking inverts: Credo at around 16x tops Advanced Micro Devices at around 15x, Marvell at around 14x, and Nvidia at around 11x.
Margin reconciles the two. Fiscal 2026 non-GAAP net income margin came in at 49.5%, so roughly half of every revenue dollar reached the bottom line. Chief Financial Officer Daniel Fleming, asked at the same conference whether Credo was investing enough, pointed to the structure underneath: “the growth rate of revenue was 1.5x that of OpEx.”
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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $213.15
- Target Price (Mid): ~$670
- Potential Total Return: ~213%
- Annualized IRR: ~27% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Credo Technology stock (It’s free!) >>>
Using the mid case, the model reaches roughly $670 by April 2031, implying about 213% total return, or around 27% annualized. Across its 2026 to 2036 window, it assumes revenue compounding near 29% per year with net income margin around 50%, producing EPS growth of roughly 24% annually and a slightly lower exit multiple.
Two drivers carry the revenue line: active electrical cable volumes scaling with AI cluster sizes, and the 3-nanometer supply position holding so shipments are not capped by wafer availability. The margin case rests on vertical integration through the DustPhotonics acquisition, which Brennan said lets Credo build transceivers using its own components rather than buying an $80 DSP from a supplier.
Concentration is the primary risk, since a small group of customers drives most of the revenue. The model’s low case assumes revenue growth near 26% and margin near 47%, and gross margin settling toward the 67% guidance floor as optics mix-up would break the margin assumption before growth ever slowed.
Conclusion
Credo reports first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on September 9 after the close.
Two lines settle the disagreement. Revenue at or above the $475 million top of guidance, with non-GAAP gross margin holding near the 68.3% posted in the fourth quarter, says the estimates and the targets were right, and the tape was early. A print at the low end with margin sliding toward the 67% floor says the market read the quarter before the analysts did.
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Should You Invest in Credo Technology?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Credo Technology, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
You can build a free watchlist to track Credo Technology alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
