Key Stats for Lululemon Stock
- Current Price: $114.28
- Target Price (Mid): ~$141
- Street Target: ~$128
- Potential Total Return: ~23%
- Annualized IRR: ~5% / year
- Max Drawdown: 51.95% (June 22, 2026)
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What Happened?
lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) now carries exactly one Buy rating. TIKR’s July 24 coverage table shows 1 Buy, 29 Holds, 1 Underperform, and 3 Sells. Shares closed at $114.28, roughly 49% below the 52-week high of $225.98.
Michael Burry is on the other side. In Substack comments reported on July 20, he called the selloff a no-brainer and framed it as a patience trade, on the condition that the company still exists in recognizable form a decade from now.
Truist Cut to Sell, and the Street Mean Has More Than Halved Since August
Joseph Civello moved lululemon from Hold to Sell on July 16, cutting his target to $94 from $115. He took fiscal 2026 EPS to $10.50 from $11.25 and fiscal 2027 to $10.25 from $11.75, writing that the headwinds may prove more structural than the Street is currently underwriting.
He was not alone. Morgan Stanley resumed coverage on July 6 at Underweight with a $93 target. Wells Fargo’s Ike Boruchow trimmed his estimate to $105 from $110 on July 21 while taking estimates below consensus.
The consensus itself tells the same story. TIKR’s Street mean has fallen from around $291 in August 2025 to about $128 as of July 24, against a median near $123 and a low around $88. Fourteen analysts rated the stock a Buy last August.
What they are reacting to is the June 4 quarter. Revenue rose 4% to $2.5 billion, but gross margin fell 410 basis points to 54.2%, and management cut full-year EPS guidance to $10.95 to $11.15 against $13.26 last year. The stock closed down 8.56% the next session.
Meghan Frank, Interim Co-CEO and CFO, gave analysts the details that mattered. Asked whether the traffic loss skewed to any particular customer, she said the company saw “a broad-based traffic reduction, which was really all demographics.” A problem confined to one cohort or one price tier would be a merchandising fix.
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The Multiple Is Cheap Because the Estimates Keep Falling
Lululemon trades at 10.33x NTM earnings and 5.93x NTM EV/EBITDA. On the first page of TIKR’s competitors table, every peer carrying a forward P/E trades above it: Deckers at 12.59x, ANTA Sports at 13.04x, adidas at 17.18x, Ralph Lauren at 20.24x, and Nike at 24.25x. On EV/EBITDA, the closest peer is ANTA at 7.15x.
That discount is not unearned. TIKR’s forward two-year estimates show revenue growing 1.1% annually while EBITDA contracts 6.3% and EPS contracts 7.8%. A single-digit multiple on shrinking earnings is a moving target, which is broadly the case Civello made.
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Burry Bought in the Low $110s, and the Stock Is Still There
Burry disclosed on his Substack in early June that he substantially increased his position after shares fell into the low-to-mid $110 range. They closed at $114.28 on July 24, so the entry he described is still on the board.
His case rests on the balance sheet and the operating plan. Tangible book value per share has risen to $40.52 from $34.26 last August. China Mainland revenue grew 30% in the quarter, though management flagged that the Chinese New Year calendar shift added 8 percentage points to that figure, and Frank put the underlying trend in line with the roughly 20% full-year guide.
Frank said full-price selling rose at a high single-digit rate globally in the first quarter. The U.S. was still slightly negative, but improved meaningfully from the fourth quarter after the company pulled 15% of SKUs out of North American stores and cut markdowns. Lululemon is also chasing 20% more volume this year, with inventory units down about 4%.
None of that sits in guidance. Discussing those products and marketing initiatives, Frank told analysts the company is “not assuming any meaningful impact from those initiatives at this point,” which leaves room above the range if they land.
Two cautions. Burry’s July commentary came through his Substack rather than a regulatory filing, so the current stake size is unconfirmed. And the 2.2 million shares repurchased in the April quarter went out at an average of $165, roughly 44% above where the stock trades now.
TIKR Advanced Model Analysis
- Current Price: $114.28
- Target Price (Mid): ~$141
- Potential Total Return: ~23%
- Annualized IRR: ~5% / year
See analysts’ growth forecasts and price targets for Lululemon stock (It’s free!) >>>
Using the mid case, the model reaches roughly $141 by January 2031, about 23% total return and near 5% a year over four and a half years. Across TIKR’s full 2026 to 2036 forecast window, that case runs on a 3% revenue CAGR and an 11.4% net income margin, with continued multiple compression of about 4% a year rather than a re-rating.
The two growth drivers are China Mainland, guided to roughly 20% for the full year, and square footage expansion in the low double digits, with 25 to 30 of this year’s store openings landing internationally. The margin driver is tariff relief, since full-year gross tariff impact is guided to about 30 basis points with nearly all of it offset, against 280 basis points gross in the first quarter alone.
The primary risk is North America, where traffic fell across every demographic, and guidance calls for a low double-digit decline in the second quarter. Upside comes if the chase strategy and the step-up in marketing spend to 6% to 6.5% of sales work, because none of that benefit is embedded in the range. Downside comes if comps keep sliding and clearance runs past the second quarter, in which case the 11.4% margin assumption is too generous.
Conclusion
Burry and Civello are each right about part of it. The stock is cheap on current numbers, and those numbers are still being revised down. On the model’s assumptions, that resolves to roughly 5% a year, which is a real return and a slow one.
Second-quarter results settle it. Lululemon has not confirmed the date, and calendars point to late August or early September. Management guided full-price sales down mid-single digits with markdowns up about 50 basis points, and Frank called the second quarter the high-water mark for markdowns. If it is not, Heidi O’Neill inherits a harder problem in September than the one she agreed to take.
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Should You Invest in Lululemon?
The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.
Pull up Lululemon, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
